After the Dutch GP, Max Verstappen to Mercedes seems inescapable. The Orange army is unhappy; Jos Verstappen is fed up. Red Bull has turned into a shadow of its former self with no explanation for the RB20’s sudden drop in performance. The reigning champion’s milestone 200th F1 race, which fortuitously took place on his home soil, saw him emerge simply disappointed instead of turning into something historic. “I can’t go faster. The car doesn’t respond to my inputs,” was his upsetting radio message in Lap 24 when Lando Norris easily extended his race lead.

If you hadn’t followed F1 in the first half of the 2024 season, even your most educated guess would say that Verstappen was trailing Lando Norris in the championship after the latter’s thumping victory in Zandvoort. What did not help Red Bull was Mercedes boss Toto Wolff’s pre-weekend declaration stating that the 2026 seat remains open for Verstappen. Improved performance is the only way RBR boss Christian Horner can retain his star driver. But how will the Milton Keynes outfit take any significant steps when their upgrades give rival teams the edge?

Red Bull’s upgrades turn into ‘downgrades’ as Adrian Newey’s absence is felt

The biggest factor that separates Mercedes from Red Bull is their ability to sustain dominance. The Silver Arrows won every constructor’s title in the turbo-hybrid era, from 2014 to 2021. The last year marked the change of guard in the drivers’ championship, which Red Bull has sustained. But the energy drinks manufacturer hasn’t been as adept in elongating their dominant periods, with both Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen.

In the Vettel era, it was a regulations change that Red Bull couldn’t adapt to. While that can be counted as a failure on technical mastermind Adrian Newey’s part, the team’s current slump cannot. Newey’s supreme creation, the RB19, produced F1’s most dominant year ever. Verstappen shattered numerous records. The RB20 was no less in combating the converging grid, taking 7 wins in the first 10 races of 2024. But the tech guru’s immediate exit in May meant Red Bull was lost.

Though Christian Horner was still confident about their progress, results did not follow. Newey’s right-hand-man turned new technical leader, Pierre Wache, couldn’t replicate the 65-year-old’s success. Red Bull’s biggest upgrade package of 2024, which came at the Hungarian GP, proved counterproductive. It surprisingly made way for Mercedes and McLaren to fly past them instead of preventing that.

“If this is not giving us some good lap time, then I don’t know how the rest of the season is going to evolve,” Verstappen had said then. His instinct was right and Red Bull’s worst fear came true at the Dutch GP. Team advisor Helmut Marko even made fun of the team in Zandvoort, terming that upgrade package a “downgrade”. But that’s the conundrum that the reigning champs have on their hands now, and their star driver’s father looks ready to call it quits.

The Jos Verstappen angle: Closeness with Toto Wolff & Annoyance with Red Bull

Within three days in Zandvoort, Jos Verstappen’s relationships with Toto Wolff & Christian Horner became clear. On Friday, the Mercedes boss confirmed summer break talks with the Verstappen family, concluding how a 2025 partnership came out of the question. However, Wolff affirmed how his pleasant relationship with them remained unchanged since 2014, when they first met. In a twist of events, the Austrian even apologized to Jos Verstappen for not checking in with him after Max’s horrendous 2021 British GP crash.

As if that wasn’t enough of a reality check for Red Bull to step up and fix their inner environment, they worsened it as Verstappen lost to Norris by nearly 23 seconds. “Maybe I shouldn’t say it, but I’m doing it anyway,” Jos Verstappen told De Telegraaf after the Dutch GP, as quoted by PlanetF1. “The fact that you have to go back to the car from the beginning of this year says enough,” he added, referring to the team using an older set-up as an experiment. “They just don’t have it right here at the moment. I think they should take a good look in the mirror.”

Jos also admitted that Max had foreseen this debacle. “Max knew this was coming. He just didn’t have a chance. This way it’s going to be really tough the rest of the year. Max is doing everything he can, but doesn’t have the material to finish it,” he emphasized, demanding better accountability from Red Bull. “It was already exceptional that he qualified second.”

But it didn’t end there. Jos also highlighted how Horner had to step up and turn things around, which he didn’t expect to happen. Now that’s as ominous as it gets; we know how high Max holds his father’s advice. At the beginning of the season, announcing a Mercedes move might’ve seemed stupid, considering the W15’s dire state. But with Mercedes’ James Allison-led technical team stepping up, the resistance has reduced.

Max Verstappen sees “nothing wrong” with Toto Wolff publicly pursuing him for Mercedes seat

On Friday, Toto Wolff ruled out a 2025 Verstappen-Mercedes partnership but kept the 2026 doors open. “We’ve made a decision for 2025 and hopefully that will be the line-up for 2026,” he said. “But that doesn’t automatically mean that the door is closed for Max with us in 2026 or beyond.” Naturally, questions about this and their summer break meeting were posed to Verstappen post-qualifying on Saturday.

“Which meeting?”, he cheekily retorted, adding “I don’t remember.” But on further goading by Motorsport, if Wolff should stop speaking about him, the Dutchman replied, “No, I mean, everyone can say what they want. I get on very well with Toto. I think he’s very open about what’s happening within his team, right? Also, I think with the driver line-up and stuff. So there’s nothing wrong with that.”

It’s weird how the entire situation has changed within one race weekend. Though Mercedes wasn’t particularly quick at the Dutch GP, their recent performance graph has been upward. That, for one, tips the scales a bit more in their favor. Who knows? The 2026 announcement might come much sooner than expected. When it does, there would be two losers in the scenario – Red Bull and George Russell. The reasoning for the former is apparent. As for the latter, Wolff won’t get rid of Andrea Kimi Antonelli within one year, and having Verstappen over Russell, he’d take that deal any day.