Why Is Mercedes the Only Viable Option for Carlos Sainz’s 2025 Campaign?

“You’ve had a very fast unemployed driver win today, so the market is reasonably fluid with certain drivers,” said Christian Horner post the Australian GP gushing about Carlos Sainz‘s stellar drive. And while Toto Wolff may disagree with a lot that Horner says, he’d agree with this one. Carlos Sainz is the most eligible driver on the market and it is rumored that teams have made a queue to sign him. And if we consider the reports and rumors, his inclination is towards Toto Wolff’s den.

In this silly season, Carlos Sainz emerged as a potential candidate for both Red Bull and Mercedes. Red Bull was his first home. 8 years ago, Toro Rosso launched a spectacular driver lineup consisting of Max Verstappen and Carlos. The talented pairing wasn’t very successful with each other because of the latter’s problems with Helmut Marko and RB’s subsequent bias towards Verstappen. Considering the situation may be similar or worse with Verstappen being the clear number 1, the Milton Keynes-based outfit doesn’t seem as lucrative to Carlos. And with Fernando Alonso closing the Aston Martin option for others, Mercedes is the only ‘good’ option left.

“If an agreement is reached”: Carlos Sainz closes in on the coveted Mercedes drive

The 29-year-old has been driving like there is no tomorrow. To be honest, there is no seat for him tomorrow (read next year), and he has given the audition of his lifetime. There were rumors of him joining Aston Martin, but Alonso put a lid on that dream, leaving just two options for Sainz. McLaren, Ferrari, and Aston Martin, 3 of the top 5 teams have no place for Sainz. And with the RB deal not a very lucrative one, Mercedes becomes the best option for Sainz’s 2025 campaign.

Another reason that makes Mercedes the best bet amongst top teams is that he won’t be a second driver there (as opposed to what will happen at Red Bull). Reports suggest that he is very close to announcing his 2025 stint with Mercedes.

According to Marca, (quoting La Gazzetta dello Sport and Corriere della Sera) Carlos Sainz is close to reaching an agreement with Mercedes. The source stated, “If an agreement is reached in the coming days, his signing could be officially announced.” This can complete an ultimate swap situation as it was due to Ferrari-bound Lewis Hamilton that the Spanish driver was left “unemployed” and with him ending up at Mercedes of all places, this will be a poetic justice and a shocking yet welcome swap.

It is also reported that Sainz is looking for a guaranteed two-year contract, with the option of a third, while Mercedes wants to keep their options open for 2026, with an audacious move for Max Verstappen on their agenda. Moreover, even if he is not provided a two-year contract owing to the German team’s interest in Max or Kimi Antonelli, Sainz is still in a win-win situation.

What are Carlos Sainz’s options beyond 2025?

Toto Wolff has been very vocal about his interest in Max Verstappen, Kimi Antonelli, and also Carlos Sainz. The reigning champion wouldn’t be too smart to switch before the regulations, especially when he has a solid chance of becoming a 5x champion before new regulations take the floor. Their second option, Kimi, is still a very young driver who may need some F1 experience before he steps into Lewis Hamilton’s shoes. For the Italian prodigy, it is said the Mercedes team may take the same route as they did with Russell, which is putting him in a Williams first. And amidst this wave of factors, Carlos Sainz needn’t worry too much about his career beyond 2025.

According to various reports since last year, Sainz is the priority of the incoming German team, Audi, which is set to take over Sauber from 2026 and beyond. The Spanish driver may hold an advantage in negotiations with Audi due to the influence his father, Carlos Sainz Sr. has with the car company. And why is that? It is because this year Sainz Sr. secured his fourth Dakar Rally victory while driving an Audi RS Q E-Tron. Moreover, the 3x GP winner is a perfect candidate for a team that is serious about winning.

Where do you think Carlos Sainz will end up in 2025 and beyond?