“We’ll know more by the summer break,” said Red Bull taskmaster Helmut Marko when asked about Sergio Perez‘s future with the Milton Keynes-based team. It is an open secret that the Mexican driver’s declining form is becoming a pressing concern for the reigning champions. Another open secret is that Max Verstappen‘s points alone in 2023 could have won the team their constructor’s title.

However, with extreme competition from all teams this year, Red Bull needs both their drivers to perform and Sergio is currently sixth in the championship. Both Ferrari and McLaren drivers are ahead of him, endangering RB’s championship chances. How will the team resolve this? By doing what they have always done! We should first look at the Austrian team’s history to understand if Daniel Ricciardo or someone else can replace him.

Red Bull’s history of mid-season changes can give nightmares to Sergio Perez

“[Perez] knows it’s unsustainable to not be scoring points–we have to be scoring points in that car, and he knows that,” said Christian Horner, describing the tragedy of Checo’s form. Interestingly, the team renewed his contract two races after his diminishing ability to bring points home. Though the team thought this security would encourage him, that hasn’t happened. He has only scored 15 points in the last six races. A shockingly low number for the field’s fastest car. RB will now have to resort to their age-old tradition of switching drivers mid-season to save their throne.

The latest driver on the chopping block was Nyck de Vries, who was kicked out of their junior team after only 10 races last year. But before finding the right match for Max Verstappen, the team had a flurry of demotions and booting. Let us recollect the recent ones. In 2016, the team demoted Daniil Kvyat to their sister team. After a stellar rookie season with Toro Rosso in 2015, Verstappen was promoted to Red Bull to replace Daniil Kvyat four races into 2016. In 2017, Kvyat struggled to match the pace of Carlos Sainz in the other car, and the Russian was moved aside mid-season to make way for reigning GP2 champion Pierre Gasly.

When two races later, Sainz moved to Renault, Brendon Hartley was put in the car but was dropped at the end of 2018. With Daniel Ricciardo’s departure post 2018, Gasly was moved up the ranks and Alex Albon came in. However, looking at Gasly’s subpar performance as compared to Max, the team demoted him in the summer break of 2019. When Checo replaced Albon at the end of 2020, that is when the team found brief stability for the next 3 years, but that honeymoon period is over now. What is the road ahead for the team? Who replaces Checo?

Who will replace Sergio Perez? Can it be Daniel Ricciardo?

It is understood that Perez’s contract has a performance clause. It states that his points difference to Max Verstappen, and if it’s more than 100 after the Belgian Grand Prix, Perez could be demoted. Marc Priestley, a former McLaren mechanic, reckons as the saga plays out, it could be Lawson in the RB20, Ricciardo in the VCARB, and Perez on the sidelines. Talking about a forgettable weekend for Checo, he said, “The talk in the paddock this weekend has been increasing around the likelihood of Sergio Perez being replaced even before this season is out.”

He added: “The talk up until now has been about Lawson replacing Daniel Ricciardo at VCARB, that seems like a fair, likely scenario. It makes sense given the results, given what the team is there to do, which is to feed the main team. I think we can all safely say Ricciardo is not likely to be the replacement for the Red Bull main team in the future. He’s not a young driver coming through. Is Lawson a future Max Verstappen or Sebastian Vettel? We don’t know.”

Priestley also noted, “I think we can all safely say Ricciardo is not likely to be the replacement for the Red Bull main team in the future. He’s not a young driver coming through. Now there is talk that Lawson could replace Checo, going straight into the main team as quickly as the summer break if Checo can’t change his fortunes very quickly. And if Lawson proves to be a decent driver in that car and gives a good impression on the test. So it could be that Ricciardo lives to fight another day, and it could be Checo who is the first of those drivers to fall.”

This can be because of Daniel’s struggles with being beaten by his teammate Yuki Tsunoda. The rumors were that the honey badger was on his way out before the speed gods began punishing Checo. Amidst Ricciardo’s questionable form, Milton Keynes’ scales might not tip in his favor.