What Does Sergio Perez’s Red Bull Contract Extension Mean for Carlos Sainz’s Future?

“You’ve had a very fast unemployed driver win today. The market is reasonably fluid with certain drivers. Carlos is the only driver that’s beaten Red Bull [in the last two years], so he appears to be our nemesis,” said Christian Horner when Carlos Sainz won the 2024 Australian GP. This admiration led to speculation that Milton Keynes would witness the glory of the Spanish driver in-house. However, the rumor mill came crashing down when Red Bull decided to retain Sergio Perez for two more years instead of recruiting Carlos. Sainz’s best bet is out of reach now. That means the “very fast unemployed driver” is still looking for his match. Mercedes, Haas, Williams, Sauber (that will be Audi from 2026) and now Alpine are among the suitors left for the Spaniard.

Why did Red Bull sign Sergio Perez instead of Carlos Sainz?

The answer to this has multiple folds.

Firstly, the history. When Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz were teammates at Toro Rosso, it was understood that the fathers didn’t get along at all, creating an atmosphere of constant tension. With so much going on at the team already, Milton Keynes was probably a tense atmosphere to begin with.

Secondly, Sergio Perez is extremely popular in North America. According to 2023 data revealed by Bet MGM, Sergio Perez was the most searched-for driver on Google in many of the states that border Mexico: California, Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, which also boast a sizeable Hispanic population. This makes it a lucrative catch for an F1 team because of the F1’s aggressive expansion in the Western world.

Thirdly, this has him flaunting a gigantic roster of sponsors that aid Red Bull (also helps them pay $55 Million a year to Max). The 500% hike in F1 viewership in Mexico is just another feather in that sombrero.

Fourthly, Perez is more than happy being a second fiddle to Verstappen. After all, Red Bull breathed life back into Checo’s career when he was booted by Racing Point and ready to bid adieu to his F1 career. One cannot see that happening with Sainz.

For the reasons stated above, Carlos’s return to Red Bull became an unreliable reality. The signing of Perez alongside Max has marked the longest F1 partnership ever. However, what will happen to the man whose partnership with Ferrari and Charles Leclerc is set to end later this year?

What does the future hold for Carlos Sainz?

The best option that Sainz has is Mercedes. However, now the German Team is very keen to promote its young Formula 2 protégé, Kimi Antonelli. The plan is to escalate him straight into the works team next season and as Antonelli is under contract, Mercedes does not need to stress making that decision. And even if they do offer Sainz a contract, it will not be more than a season-long because the ultimate goal is Kimi, and that perhaps isn’t ideal for a man who wants to have long-term security.

Another issue with Mercedes is that by the time they decide who fills in Lewis Hamilton’s shoes, Sainz’s fallback options will be next to zero. His current fallback options are not very lucrative either. Every one of those will catapult him to the back of the grid. While the silver lining is that he can build a team from the ground up, the reality is that the road to glory will be a long one.

Right now, Williams seems to be one of the front-runners for him. But the worst news is that Ralf Schumacher advised Sainz not to choose Williams over Audi. He said, “I’ll tell you upfront. Williams is still a dead end at the moment. I’m honest, although I really like James Vowles.” His word holds more weight because he had himself driven for Williams from 1999 to 2004. Therefore, he argues that he knows Williams from the inside and believes the Spaniard wouldn’t feel comfortable in that setup. He has nudged him towards the team Sainz’s name has been linked to the most. He said, “I think Audi is the best choice in the long term also because of his father’s ties to the company.”

The Milton Keynes doors are now permanently shut for the 3x GP winner. He will have to make a choice soon or else the choice will be made for him with whatever option is left at last. The list of suitors is long. 10 drivers of the current grid and multiple fast-paced boys from the feeder series are already waiting for their golden chance and the completion is tough. Where do you think he will end up?