As the 2022 F1 season came to an end, Red Bull was the benchmark for every team after they overtook Ferrari in development mid-season. Both Ferrari and Mercedes were expected to make a huge comeback for the 2023 F1 season and challenge Red Bull plagued with Cost Cap penalties. However, the Milton-Keynes outfit remained supreme and outclassed the rivals like never seen before. 

It was quite clear after the first quarter of the season that Red Bull is clear and it’s between Mercedes, Ferrari, and Aston Martin to fight it out for the P2 in the championship. Aston Martin also dropped in performance during the second half of the season and left the Scuderia and the Silver Arrows to fight it out for the silver medal. While Mercedes looked like the favorite to take it, Ferrari has found some form in recent races.

As the final race is on the horizon, let’s see whether the quick and resurgent Ferrari will be able to take the runner-up honor away from Mercedes at the Abu Dhabi GP. Let’s start by looking at where it went wrong for the German Constructor in recent times.

Mercedes’ drop in form since the US GP

Mercedes and Ferrari have been in a constant battle of doing each other better at every possible moment during this race season. Whether it’s the pitstop, the strategy, or the upgrades itself. They’ve been interlocked into the spiral of a never-ending power struggle. However, if we don’t go into the details, generally, Mercedes were the better team before the summer break whereas Ferrari was the better one in the second half. 

Mercedes have struggled to deliver maximum performance at almost every race after the Belgium GP. Mercedes was outperformed by Ferrari at Monza, Singapore, Japan, and then came the infamous Qatar GP crash between the two Silver Arrows. That was followed by Lewis Hamilton’s disqualification at the US GP and then the struggle at the Brazilian and Las Vegas GP. 

It seems as if Mercedes don’t even know what they’re doing at the moment, and that’s not what one thinks about the Silver Arrows. Even Danica Patrick advised that Toto Wolff looks defeated. She said, “You can sense, Toto looked defeated, frustrated, tired maybe. Christian [Horner] was talking about the timing of this event. It’s been a long year, everybody is wearing down. So I’m sure it’s feeling extra heavy to them now, especially when they have bad days.”

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But it’s not only Mercedes’ drop in form but also Ferrari getting their act together and finally pushing the result out of the very capable SF23, drivers, and team.  

Ferrari’s blistering pace at the Las Vegas GP

After the first couple of rounds, it was clear that the SF23 had the raw one-lap pace to challenge the RB19 at some tracks. However, it was Ferrari’s tire degradation that let them down throughout the season including the race in Monza. Carlos Sainz is the only non-Red Bull driver that has won a race this season. The Scuderia was easily the best car in Singapore and Monza when it came to a one-lap pace. 

Over time, Ferrari brought upgrades, and the tire issues, while still being there, were less persistent. Las Vegas was a step into the unknown, but one thing was for sure, the cold temperatures will help the Ferrari. And it did as Charles Leclerc put the car on pole. And had it not been for the second safety car, would’ve won the race. Nonetheless, the second half of the season has been with 5 podiums compared to Mercedes’ 2. 

Frederic Vasseur also looks confident going into the final race of the season. The Scuderia are only 4 points behind the German team and anything can happen at Abu Dhabi. Vasseur said, “We were able to perform in Monza, in Singapore, in Austin, in Mexico and during this weekend on different tires, in different conditions and different compounds and we can be more than motivated before Abu Dhabi. The momentum is with us, so let’s see what happens.”

However, the Yas Marina Circuit isn’t anything like the Las Vegas Strip Street Circuit. Let’s see which team will fare better at the Abu Dhabi GP.

Who will come out on Top at the Abu Dhabi GP? Ferrari or Mercedes?

The Yas Marina Circuit is a challenging circuit for the driver with a combination of long straights and technical corners. The circuit however made changes a couple of years ago to promote closer racing. Still, most of the corners are slow-speed 90-degree corners combined with two long straights that follow one after another. Looking at the layout, the Ferrari should fare better with the low drag and slow-speed cornering ability. 

Even Jenson Button suggested that Ferrari would have the upper hand on Mercedes at the Abu Dhabi GP. Button said, “Abu Dhabi is another circuit with long straights and 90-degree corners. It’s going to be similar, the Ferrari will be competitive there.” Both Monza and Las Vegas were tracked with the same characteristics and Ferrari excelled in those GPs.

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Given the recent form of the drivers combined with this information, it’s a no-brainer that Ferrari will be the favorite to outscore Mercedes at the Abu Dhabi GP. However, the Silver Arrows cannot be discounted as they have a 4-point lead and can come up with a package to challenge Ferrari.