Can Max Verstappen and Red Bull Make a Comeback at the Canadian GP After the Monaco and Miami Disaster?

Max Verstappen won the Bahrain GP and the Saudi Arabian GP, finishing a postcode ahead of the car in P2. Flashbacks of the 2023 dominance were imminent for the F1 community. The Red Bull RB20 seemed to be performing poorly at the Australian GP, but with Max Verstappen retiring early on, nobody knew what the Red Bull could’ve done in race trim. Back-to-back wins in China and Japan followed this setback. Red Bull and Verstappen seemed to be on their way to another championship.

But then came the Miami GP. Adrian Newey announced his exit as McLaren brought the major upgrades. The Dutchman struggled with grip in Florida and Lando Norris won his first-ever race. Although Verstappen won in Imola, he was just tenths away from losing the race win to Norris once again as he struggled in the latter part on hard tires. Monaco was by far the worst weekend, filled with complaints from the championship leader about the car. 

With the Canadian GP up next, can Red Bull and Max Verstappen bounce back from the recent setbacks? Does Red Bull know what’s wrong with the RB20? Is it a circuit-specific issue or a problem with the RB20? Let’s find out.

Max Verstappen and Red Bull’s recent Struggles

It all started at the Miami GP. Max Verstappen took the Sprint Pole and won the Sprint Race. Life seemed good for the Dutchman, a regular day’s work. However, Verstappen was unhappy with how the car was behaving. Verstappen wasn’t thrilled with how the car behaved underneath him despite taking the pole. During the race on Sunday, the problems with the RB20 finally came to light when Max Verstappen wasn’t able to catch Lando Norris after the safety car restart. 

The car just stopped talking to the championship leader like it used to. Norris pulled the gap on Verstappen and won comfortably. Imola was a pretty standard weekend for Verstappen again, bagging pole, but then it almost came undone as the RB20 struggled with hard tires, just not coping to get them into the working window. The tires completely fell off in the last 15 laps, allowing Norris to catch up. Verstappen complained about the lack of grip from the tires as they lost temperature. The experience was described as driving on ice.

Monaco brought the challenge of a bumpy track and Max Verstappen had another added issue for the race in the Principality. The Dutchman again suffered problems with the balance of the car and the grip with the added issue of the car being too stiff. Verstappen complained about jumping around like a monkey and getting a headache from all the bumps. He started P6 and finished P6. And it isn’t really a Verstappen setup issue as even Sergio Perez has struggled in these last three races.

Red Bull brought upgrades to the RB20 in Imola. Many blamed them for making the car worse. In reality, however, the problem is much more complex, with various factors affecting the results.

What is the reason behind Max Verstappen and Red Bull’s struggles? 

The Singapore GP was the only race won by a non-Red Bull driver in 2023 as the Milton Keynes team struggled around the Singapore GP. Some suggested that the Red Bull doesn’t ride the kerbs well. Both Miami and Monaco are tracks where riding the kerbs is essential for lap time. There seems to be a problem with the car with Red Bull losing both races. Helmut Marko recently came out to suggest that it’s actually a problem with the simulator and not the car.

According to Speedweek, Helmut Marko wrote, “The problem begins in the simulator, which has signaled that the car goes well over the curbs. Simply put, this means that the simulator and reality do not correlate. And Monaco was not the first racetrack where we had this problem, which was relatively strong in Singapore for the first time. The simulator spat out something that did not correspond to reality. This is the first point we will start at.”

The simulator is key for a team to preempt the basic setup and know-how of what the car will do around a specific circuit. If, like at Monaco, the simulations are way off, the team has to make a boatload of changes overnight, which may or may not work. A car usually has one weakness or another, and the upgraded RB20’s kryptonite seems to be finding the right car balance and grip with the tires. The simulator inaccuracies also seem to be an issue.

Red Bull was nowhere near the front running pace at Imola, but long sessions by Sebastien Buemi on Friday helped the team figure a way around the setup. Also, the fact that other teams like McLaren and Ferrari have upgraded massively and found huge chunks of performance made Red Bull’s issues even more evident as suddenly they’re not the class of the grid. 

Some tracks will suit the RB20 and some will not. Then what about the Canadian GP? Is it one of the difficult tracks to get right for the Milton Keynes teams?

Struggles may continue for Max Verstappen and Red Bull at the Canadian GP

“We are optimistic that we can find out at least once why the simulator produces such data that does not correspond to reality. But Montreal could also be a difficult weekend for us”, wrote Helmut Marko, warning Red Bull about the upcoming race weekend in Canada. The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is a street circuit with loads of chicanes and long straights. While the Red Bull is great on the straights, the same cannot be said about riding the kerbs of the Chicanes based on their recent struggles. 

The cars that have great rear-end traction and a supple suspension are usually the ones that excel at the Canadian GP circuit. Red Bull seems to be struggling with both those issues, whereas Ferrari is strong in both those areas. It looks unlikely that Verstappen will win the Canadian GP.