Can Charles Leclerc Overcome His Unfortunate Streak at Monaco GP With Fred Vasseur’s ‘SF-24 Evo’?

Ferrari and Charles Leclerc’s relationship with the Monaco GP is one that needs to be swallowed with a bitter taste. From the “Box, Box. Stay out” nightmare to the crash in 2021 qualifying which prevented Leclerc from starting the race despite being on pole. The Monegasque’s home race has arguably brought the biggest back of bad luck for Leclerc. Will the 2024 Monaco GP be any different?

The signs look positive for Ferrari and Charles Leclerc as the Scuderia brought massive upgrades to last weekend’s Emilia Romagna GP. There might as well be a chance for Charles Leclerc to finally win his home race after multiple years of sorrows and heartaches. But how will Ferrari do it with McLaren and Red Bulls dominating? Is there any chance at all for Frederic Vasseur’s SF-24 Evo? Let’s have a look.

Ferrari’s New Upgrades at Imola. What did we learn from the Emilia Romagna GP about them?

Ferrari brought a huge package of upgrades for the Emilia Romagna GP, one of the two Italian races of the season. And even before the upgrades arrived, they were being hyped up by F1 pundits, reporters, and engineers. Many advised on how the upgrades will make Ferrari 3-4 tenths faster compared to the previous iteration of the car. This was all because of the increase in downforce by 15 points, which will improve the tire wear, and make Ferrari faster around the corners.

The upgrade package was so significant that the SF-24 looked like a different car and was hence named the SF-24 Evo. New side pods with an overbite intake, a new engine cover, a new rear wing design, and a new floor were all part of this package. Obviously, the internals of the car were also changed to accommodate the cosmetic changes. Yet, Imola was not the strongest circuit for Ferrari on the calendar.

Looking at the Data from the qualifying and the race, one thing was clear, and that was the fact that Ferrari lacked straight-line speed. According to Charles Leclerc, there was some issue going on with the energy management system down the long straight, but that wasn’t all. The New Upgrades have arguably made Ferrari a lot more draggier compared to its competition, which means it does not hit the same top speed as the likes of Red Bull and McLaren. 

However, this can very well be down to the configuration of the car and the wings as Aston Martin also got the setup wrong on Fernando Alonso’s car, who went for a low downforce package, and was the fastest on straights hitting 350 km/h, but had one of the worst race pace of all, coming across the line in P19. Ferrari could very well have made a similar blunder, going super high on downforce, as the package was new, and it takes a race or two to understand it.

Nonetheless, this high downforce is exactly what one needs for the Monaco GP

The New Upgrades to Help Charles Leclerc and Ferrari in Monaco

The Monaco GP is unique in the fact that it’s the only kind of racetrack on the grid where all teams care about its super high downforce and completely go oblivious to the straight-line speed. The circuit is a narrow, bumpy, street circuit with barriers all around. As the car needs to be navigated around the tight twisty corners, a high downforce helps out massively. Since there aren’t really any long straights, the Top Speed of the car doesn’t really matter here. It’s all about the traction out of the corners and high-speed stability.

This is where Ferrari’s Imola GP upgrades will come into play. During the qualifying lap in Imola, we saw Ferrari lose chunks of time to Red Bull and McLaren in the first sector, which had that long start-finish straight. In the other two sectors, Ferrari matches the Top 3. If one takes the straight out, we would’ve had a 5 way fight for pole in Imola. And this very well might be the case in Monaco.

Teams usually bring their highest downforce package to Monaco, and Ferrari will be at an advantage with the new high downforce package, and piling on an even deeper rear wing. In Monaco, the qualifying is everything as it’s extremely difficult to overtake cars on track, due to the nature of the circuit. And this again will play massively into Charles Leclerc’s favor. But what are the chances that Leclerc will take the Monaco win?

Can Charles Leclerc win the 2024 Monaco GP?

The data from Imola shows us that Charles Leclerc was only a tenth slower than Max Verstappen in race pace and that too when Ferrari suffered with the straight line issue. Coming to Monaco, it’s a track the Leclerc knows by heart and has taken pole on. The Monegasque is arguably the best qualifier on the grid at the moment, and qualifying is what matters in Monaco.

With Ferrari’s high downforce package, if Leclerc is able to secure the pole, which looks likely, then he for sure has the race pace to lead the race and take the win. The only uncertainty that will remain is either a strategic blunder or a safety car/Red Flag. The Scuderia will have to be on top of it all the time and make all the right strategy calls. 

Do you think 2024 will be the year when Charles Leclerc finally wins his home race?