Adrian Newey to Ferrari, Max Verstappen to Mercedes: What Does the Future Behold for Christian Horner and Red Bull?

Ever since Red Bull’s inception in 2005, the aim of the F1 team has always been to challenge and win the championship. It took the Milton Keynes team about half a decade to set up everything and win their first championship in 2010, but since then, they’ve been there or thereabouts in terms of being at the front. Even during Mercedes’ dominance during the Turbo-Hybrid Era, Red Bull had one of the best cars in terms of downforce but lacked power from the Renault engine.

It was the combination of Adrian Newey’s aerodynamics, Honda’s Power Unit, and Max Verstappen that finally beat the once invisible-looking Mercedes and have now become the definition of invincible. However, Honda decided to leave the team and joined Astin Martin for the 2026 regulations. On the other hand, Adrian Newey, Max Verstappen, and Helmut Marko are all set to leave the team following the power struggle caused by Christian Horner’s Investigation. 

What does the future now hold for Red Bull, who seem to have been falling apart? Are they going to become a midfield team followed by all these key departures? Let’s have a look. 

Adrian Newey’s Rumored Exit from Red Bull and Ferrari Move. What effect will it have on the F1 Team?

Adrian Neweybwas set to join Ferrari in the mid-2000s after his stint with McLaren. But then Christian Horner stepped in and poached the mastermind away. Till date, Adrian Newey has been responsible for designing all of Red Bull’s cars and has won 12 championships over his F1 career with the cars built by him. So the Brit’s exit from the team is going to be a big deal. 

The Christian Horner Investigation saga is believed to be the reason behind Adrian Newey’s exit. The aerodynamicist is discontent with the team, as confirmed by Red Bull members, and is leaving because of personal issues with Christian Horner. The personal assistant who accused the Team Principal served both Newey and Horner, and his suspension followed by investigation is rumored to be the tipping point. Aston Martin and Ferrari are rumored to have already made an offer to Newey. 

Red Bull currently uses a relic of a wind tunnel that was built in 1947. Despite being upgraded over time, it comes nowhere close to some of the new wind tunnels that other F1 teams like McLaren and Aston Martin have built. Yet, Adrian Newey, just with a pen and paper was able to build cars that have been far superior in terms of aerodynamics compared to the rest of the grid. There’s a reason why he’s known as the man who can see air. However, that’s not the only problem that Red Bull faces.

Red Bull’s Star Driver Max Verstappen to Negotiate a Deal with Toto Wolff and take Helmut Marko with him

Toto Wolff has always been keen on signing Max Verstappen. This goes back to when Verstappen stood out in the lower Formulas and attracted the attention of various teams. Unfortunately, Mercedes did not have a seat available at that moment, but now they do after Lewis Hamilton’s departure to Ferrari. Toto Wolff is believed to be pursuing Max Verstappen aggressively.

Jos Verstappen, after the Horner Investigation, made comments that the team is going to explode if Christian Horner stays at Red Bull. While nothing is confirmed as of yet, it looks likely that Papa Verstappen’s words will come true. Max Verstappen is set to meet Toto Wolff and other people of interest from Mercedes after the Miami GP. It is reported to be a contract negotiation between the parties with Mercedes willing to go as high as $160 Million a year to sign the Dutchman and an ambassadorial role.

And not only Verstappen, Toto Wolff is also believed to offer the Dutchman the option to bring in Helmut Marko with himself. While Verstappen’s contract with Red Bull extends till 2028, an exit clause in it will help him leave the team if Helmut Marko does so as well. So with Max Verstappen, Adrian Newey, and Helmut Marko seemingly out of the picture, where does this leave Red Bull?

Christian Horner and Red Bull’s Potential Plan to Recover from Major Losses

A few weeks ago, rumors filled the paddock that Christian Horner had a meeting with Red Bull’s Thai owners in the Middle East, and the owners are ready to give control of the beverage division and the motorsports division. There seems to be no loss of authority or control on Horner’s side, and he’s stronger than ever. Horner played the most crucial role in bringing Newey in and putting all the pieces in place to make Red Bull what they are. 

If all these departures happen, Red Bull might be a little vulnerable for some time but will be back up as Horner has already started building up whatever’s left within the team. Let’s start with Adrian Newey. While it is impossible to replace the mastermind, Pierre Wache, who’s the most desirable engineer in the sport after Newey is still with the team. Wache has also been on Ferrari’s radar, as Loic Serra tried to convince the Red Bull Technical Director to join the team. 

However, Christian Horner is believed to have bigger plans for Pierre Wache and is planning to give him a greater role for the upcoming 2026 regulations. As far as the ancient wind tunnel goes, Red Bull is going to replace it with a new state-of-the-art wind tunnel that’ll come online by 2026. So while the Aerodynamics department will take a hit after Newey’s exit, it’ll be just for a short while.

The next concern is Max Verstappen, who has been key in the recent dominance. Had Red Bull not had Verstappen in the last couple of years, Leclerc would’ve taken the 2022 championship and Perez would’ve had to fight till the very last race to become champion. Finding a driver of Verstappen’s caliber is going to be impossible, but there’s hope in the form of Carlos Sainz.

If Max Verstappen goes to Mercedes, Sainz would only be left with Sauber/Audi as his option. However, Red Bull will then have an empty seat alongside Checo. Neither Yuki Tsunoda nor Daniel Ricciardo seems fit to lead the main team at the moment, whereas Carlos Sainz is in the form of his life, arguably being the only driver who could beat Verstappen in an equal car. It shouldn’t be a problem for Christian Horner to convince former Red Bull driver Carlos Sainz to join the team as the lead driver.

What do you think the future holds for Christian Horner, Red Bull, Adrian Newey, and Max Verstappen?