After a dominant 2022 season which saw him win a record 15 races, Max Verstappen has been made the preseason favorite for the 2023 Formula 1 world championship, according to Beyond the flag. And despite a tumultuous and underwhelming season, Lewis Hamilton has been chosen as the second favorite ahead of Charles Leclerc and his teammate George Russell. It is surprising that Sergio Perez stands joint fifth favorite with Carlos Sainz despite a P3 finish.

Max Verstappen has been in scintillating form over the past two years, winning 25 of the 44 races he has contested since the start of 2021. While it is understood that he wasn’t a favorite in 2021, with Lewis coming in hot form, he was still not the preseason favorite for the 2022 title, with Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton being given the nod in 2021 as well as 2022.

This raises the question of whether Verstappen can break the trend of the preseason favorite not winning the title in recent years. Hamilton was the favorite going into the 2021 season, seeking to win an unprecedented eighth world championship. But Verstappen emerged victorious on a dramatic final lap in Abu Dhabi. 

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The following year, with the new regulations and uncertainty, Hamilton was again the favorite, though there were shades of him not returning after being denied the title by a controversial decision. But as we saw, despite his return, Mercedes couldn’t deliver a car good enough for its drivers to challenge. Since Lewis Hamilton has fallen short earlier, could Verstappen be the latest victim?

Can Max Verstappen break the trend?

There are a few other interesting things to consider before we head into the 2023 season. The driver who won the season finale has gone on to win the world title the following year for the past four seasons, beginning with Hamilton’s triumph in the 2018 Abu Dhabi GP. Verstappen won the 2022 finale in Abu Dhabi, so can he extend this streak in 2023? 

On the other hand, no season-opener driver has won the title since Nico Rosberg achieved the feat in 2016. Hamilton won the 2021 opener in Bahrain, while Leclerc triumphed in 2022, but both seasons were won by Verstappen.

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Overall, it looks set to be an exciting 2023 season with a number of drivers capable of challenging Verstappen. The Dutchman will no doubt be the man to beat, but with the likes of Hamilton, Leclerc, and Russell all expected to be in the mix, it could be a closely contested championship.