Pole position at the Hungarian GP Qualifying is wide open for contention. After succumbing to the converging grid two times in a row, Red Bull brings its biggest upgrade package of 2024 to propel Max Verstappen to his third consecutive win at the Hungaroring. McLaren came into Hungary as the favorite, but Lando Norris found the MCL38 “on the edge” on Friday, asking the team for a “little bit more from the comfort side”. After two wins on the trot, rivals Mercedes severely struggled, with British GP winner Lewis Hamilton unhappy with the team’s efforts. “Not the best prep so far,” he said after FP2.

But things changed significantly in FP3. McLaren fulfilled Norris’ request for a better set-up, securing a 1-2 in the crucial session before qualifying. Under the scorching sun, FP1 topper Ferrari backtracked as Max Verstappen and George Russell rounded up the Top 4 behind the McLarens. But will this pecking order change when the pressure of securing a good grid position develops?

Hungarian GP Qualifying: Red Bull v/s McLaren for Pole in the most important session at F1’s ‘2nd Monaco GP’

Because of its narrow nature that nearly prevents overtaking, the Hungaroring is called the ‘Monaco without Walls’. Without volatile weather changes, the drivers will most likely end in the positions they started. Since the sun is always shining bright in Hungary at this time of the year with only an outside chance for rain on race day, qualifying becomes the prime session of the weekend. Red Bull’s upgrade package has again made them the top dog, with reigning champion Max Verstappen the favorite for his 9th Pole of 2024.

However, qualifying simulation data from F1.com shows that McLaren’s MCL38 is only two-hundredths of a second (0.02s) behind. This should ideally put us to witness a 3-way battle for Pole – Verstappen v/s the McLarens. But this time, the Dutchman won’t necessarily be the only Red Bull up front. Teammate Sergio Perez could be a wildcard to split the McLarens. Facing the harsh truth of getting axed if his performance doesn’t improve, he was “most comfortable” in his RB20 on Friday.

George Russell was taken aback by the Mexican’s run, saying, “(Perez) seems quite quick. So that might be a bit of a surprise, having a fight there, as he seems really quick.” Though Russell expects a fight against Perez, his W15 might not even be up to the mark for the front two rows. Mercedes and Ferrari have a 0.31-second and 0.34-second qualifying disadvantage to Red Bull, respectively.

Mercedes v/s Ferrari – the battle for the Top 2 teams’ leftovers

Sport is a great leveler. Mercedes and Ferrari’s 2024 ups and downs are the embodiment of this quote. The Silver Arrows began the season as fourth-best while their Italian rivals were second-fastest. The tides turned in the last three races, with them swapping positions. But in hot conditions, Mercedes’ W15 has taken a U-turn to give the ever-consistent McLaren the edge.

“We don’t seem to be quite as competitive in these very hot conditions so that is something we need to understand,” George Russell said post-FP2. Though their long-run pace is encouraging, what purpose will it serve on a track where overtaking is sparse? Ferrari, on the other hand, finally had a breakthrough after several dismal weekends. “The car feels pretty good so far and we had a more consistent day compared to the past few weekends,” Charles Leclerc said. Departing teammate Carlos Sainz also termed it a “positive day”.

P5 will be the highest they fight for at the Hungarian GP qualifying unless Sergio Perez fails to get in the Top 4. Otherwise, Hamilton and Russell will engage in an intra-team fight for the last second-row spot with Sainz and Leclerc lining up behind at best. Unless Haas and Aston Martin reproduce Silverstone-like magic in Mogyorod, Hungary, this is how the Top 4 teams are locked in.