Max Verstappen has been the dominant force once again this year and a couple of reasons have stopped him from winning all the races so far. None of them were his fault. The brake issue in Melbourne and the safety car in Miami were the only reasons Verstappen didn’t win the race. The next race is at the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari in Emilia Romagna (Imola GP), a track infamous for the conditions that change in a split second. 

Will the unpredictable weather be Max’s downfall? How will it affect the race? What have the track conditions been at recent races at Imola? From the weather forecast to rain predictions for the 2024 Imola GP, let’s dive deeper. 

History of Rain at the Imola Circuit over the last 4 years 

Over the last 4 years, we’ve had Imola on the F1 calendar and 3 of them were massively impacted by the rain. In 2023, it was so bad that the race had to be canceled as the whole region was flooded, making it impossible for the teams and F1 to race. 2020 was the only year where the track remained dry throughout the main race, with Mercedes scoring a 1-2. Both 2021 and 2022 are notoriously known for the rain affecting the weekends. 

In 2021, there were showers before the race even began. It caused mayhem on the formation lap and only midway through the race, the track was dry enough for the drivers to get on the slick tires. And 2022 saw rain affecting both the qualifying session and the race. The rain hit the track midway through Q2. It poured down before the race, eventually drying out around Lap 15. However, there were still wet patches on the track as the sun hid behind the clouds. 

If it rains, only the racing line is dry enough for the drivers to make the slicks work and a little moment can cause a huge crash. The same might happen this year as the weather prediction certainly isn’t dry.

Weather Prediction for 2024 Imola GP: Rain Predicted for Main Race

The city of Imola is just off the west coast of Italy and just a few miles away from Bologna. It essentially sits between the coastal town of Ravenna and inland Bologna. The clouds from the Mediterranean Sea and the Tyrrhenian Sea make Imola susceptible to quick weather changes and precipitation. As a result, the race is usually affected by rain in one form or another. 

Drivers experienced the Miami Heat last time around in Florida, as the track temperature was always in the mid to high 40s. But now coming into Imola, drivers will be created with the pleasant weather of mid-20 degrees Celsius throughout the weekend. On Friday during the Practice sessions, a maximum temperature of 24⁰C is predicted, whereas for Saturday during the qualifying, a maximum temperature of 26⁰C is predicted. 

Both Friday and Saturday are expected to be sunny days with a clear sky and no sign of rain. However, it all changes going into the race on Sunday. As per the latest weather reports, rain showers will hit the Emilia Romagna on Sunday around the time when the race will start. Some patches of rain are expected to hit the track as well. However, it’ll not be the downpour we often experience at Interlagos or Suzuka. Just enough for the drivers to switch to intermediates, and then back to slicks. On Sunday, the temperature will remain in the low 20 degrees Celsius. 

High Crash Possibility at Imola GP because of the Rain

Unlike many F1 circuits in the 2024 calendar, the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari in Emilia Romagna is an old-school circuit. So, it is not as wide. Over time, the F1 cars have notably become wider. The gravel traps are dead and the changes made to the track have only added more gravel traps in the last sector. Hence, a little mistake goes a long way around here.

During the 2021 Imola GP, Charles Leclerc spun on the formation lap. A couple of laps later, Nicholas Latifi, who went off the track, joined back gingerly and crashed into Nikita Mazepin. Lewis Hamilton locked up on a damp track and went into the gravel. Moments later, George Russell dipped a tire in the wet grass and crashed into Bottas, who was alongside him.

2022 had rain affecting both qualifying and the race. Carlos Sainz crashed in Q2, followed by Kevin Magnussen and Lando Norris crashing in Q3, all because they carried too much speed around a corner on a damp track. During the race, Sainz was unfortunate as Daniel Ricciardo couldn’t control his car on a wet track and crashed into the Spaniard. Later in the race, Sainz’s teammate Leclerc mounted the wet curb and spun out, but managed to recover. 

The rain at Imola makes the track treacherous for the drivers, and even a small mistake is punished brutally.