Can English Football succumb to losing a Champions League spot?

Let’s be honest, English football has deteriorated. All though the competitiveness still makes one’s heart race, unfortunately, that might just not be enough to retain the 4th spot in Champions League. With clubs from Spain and Germany outperforming the English teams in both Europa as well as Champions League, the third spot was previously occupied by England. But it is under a clear threat by Italy, where clubs like Juventus, Napoli and Lazio are revealing their true quality on the European level.

The Champions League offers 4 team slots to the top three countries according to their club coefficients. The next three teams get three spots each. Presently the first spot is occupied by Spain, followed by Germany and England. But immediately following them are Italy, France and Portugal. And Italy is making a strong fight to join the top three, by overruling England. They might do so, too! But how does this co-efficient system function?

The coefficient system was created by UEFA in order to rank the national and club teams to seed and rank them for international as well as club competitions, back in 1979. While the national coefficients were used to identify and seed teams for the Euros, the club version of the same was established for both Champions League and Europa. There also exists a country coefficient, which decides the number of teams the competition would entail from a particular nation. This country coefficient judges the football associations and hence is the reason why England might be in trouble.

The coefficient is dependent on the performance of clubs from a particular country in the Champions League and the Europa, over the past 5 seasons. Every win earns 2 points while a draw earns one. For qualifying and play-off’s, half of these points are awarded. While results in extra-time do count while allocating, those matches involving a penalty shoot-out don’t. As the stages increase in the competition increase, so do the bonus points awarded for playing in the latter rounds of either of the tournament. The equivalent score for a football association is hence calculated by adding up the total number of points accumulated over the past 5 seasons divided by the number of teams that participated from that particular league. The number is rounded off to 3 decimal places to maintain uniformity.

The bonus points mentioned previously are allocated as follows:

• Clubs reaching the quarter-final, semi-final or final- 1 point per match
• Clubs playing in the group stage- 4 points overall
• Clubs qualifying for round of 16- 5 points 

Analysing the same for CL, over the past 5 years- Chelsea was the only English club to have won the Champions League in the duration, back in 2011/12. This result has very well ensured and secured England’s 4 team squad for the next edition, but for the 2017/18 edition, the win by Chelsea wouldn’t fall under the 5-year duration. This essentially means that England would have nothing to bank upon for them to ensure their spots. Italy has Juventus who has been performing very well in the Champions League, reaching the finals in the previous edition. Similarly, Napoli and Lazio have done well in Europa too, increasing their overall points tally.

England, on the other hand, has had a poor run ever since. 2012/13 season saw just 2 English teams qualify for the round of 16 in CL, and only in one season did all the 4 teams qualify- 2013/14.  Only once did a team even qualify to the semifinals. These poor form of results have lost good points. Even in Europa, similar fate follows the clubs as no English team has won it in the recent years. If we assume that the ongoing season would yield similar results as 2014/15 season, it could mean worse. Only Arsenal and Chelsea qualified for the round of 16 while Everton could manage the same in Europa – adding up to a total of 13.571 points for England.

Italian teams  earned close to 19 points equivalent the same season and could continue the same- Napoli and Fiorentina both reached the semifinals of the Europa League. This was their highest tally ever since the inception of the system for football associations back in 2003. Now, these scores could end up looking something like this: (Including the present season)

Spain: 20.857 + 17.714 + 23.000 + 20.214 + 4.642 = 86.427
Germany: 15.250 + 17.928 + 14.714 + 15.857 + 4.428 = 68.177
England: 15.250 + 16.428 + 16.785 + 13.571 + 3.625= 65.659
Italy: 11.357 + 14.416 + 14.166 + 19 + 2.857 = 61.605

Now, if all these clubs replicate a similar seasonto their previous, the table would change to something like this:

Spain: 20.857 + 17.714 + 23.000 + 20.214 + 20.214 = 101.999
Germany: 15.250 + 17.928 + 14.714 + 15.857 + 15.857 = 79.606
Italy: 11.357 + 14.416 + 14.166 + 19 +19 = 77.939
England: 15.250 + 16.428 + 16.785 + 13.571 + 13.571= 75.605

When the 2017/18 season is taken into context, we have to ignore the first values of these readings – leaving England trailing by close to 6.5 points to cover in this and the next season, to ensure and protect their fourth spot against England. The probability of losing the spot is now greater than ever, as it is apparent of the lack in quality of English football in the European stage. Adding to that the re-emergence of the Milan teams like Icarus might prove to just add salt to the wound. This season, we have already seen Manchester United being knocked out in the group stages to now play in the Europa League.

It is high time the teams perform for the benefit of their own in the long run. England desperately needs a Europa win from Manchester United and at least a semifinal qualification in the Champions League. Apart from the same, they would also wish that Juventus underperforms, a rare occurrence.

Maybe, it is a well-deserved punishment of sorts for the English football fraternity entirely, something to understand their mistakes, and to come back stronger and yet again with the best teams in Europe. We hope that it does come without losing the spot though!