Three months after defeating Luis Nery at the Tokyo Dome, Naoya Inoue will make his return to the renowned Ariake Arena. The venue probably holds a special place in the ‘Monster’s heart because that’s where he became an undisputed champion twice. On September 3, he will face TJ Doheny, a former IBF super bantamweight champion.

It’s a heavily loaded card. While Yoshiki Takei will defend his WBO bantamweight title from Daigo Higa, Jin Sasaki will have to fend off the Australian Qamil Balla‘s challenge. The event will feature Ismael Barroso, who will return to the ring to defend his interim WBA light welterweight title. Finally, there will be a match for the Japanese Super Bantamweight championship. It will see Yoshiki Toshiki Shimomachi defend his belt from Ryuya Tsugawa in a ten-round contest. Let’s explore how the two Osaka-based boxers stand out against each other ahead of their showdown.

Toshiki Shimomachi vs. Ryuya Tsugawa: matchup metrics

As far as the height is concerned, 27-year-old Neyagawa, Osaka-born Toshiki Shimomachi seems to enjoy the upper hand over Ryuya Tsugawa. Standing at 5 feet and ten-and-a-half inches or 179 centimeters, Shimomachi is 3 inches taller than Tsugawa, who stands 5 feet seven-and-a-half inches or 172 centimeters tall.

However, the challenger boasts a better hand reach. Against Tsugawa’s 70 inches or 178 centimeters, Shimomachi registers a reach of 68 1/2 inches or 174 centimeters. The final weigh-ins for the tournament are yet to take place. However, per the details available, in their last fights, while Toshiki Shimomachi recorded a weight of 121.8 pounds, Ryuya Tsugawa stood at 122 pounds.

With his participation in 22 professional fights, Toshiki Shimomachi boasts a record of 18 wins against 1 loss and three draws. Given that 12 of his triumphs came through knockouts, his knockout-to-win rate stands at 66.67%. Though he has comparatively fewer fights in his kitty, with a single defeat, Tsugawa’s record somewhat matches Shimomachi’s. He secured 9 out of his 13 victories through early stoppages. Thus, at 69.23%, his knockout-to-win rate hovers around his opponent’s.

Toshiki Shimomachi vs. Ryuya Tsugawa: Who has the edge?

While details of fighting odds are not yet available, from most of the sources, it appears Shimomachi has a better chance of winning at the Ariake Arena. The southpaw began his career in 2015. It was roughly three years before Tsugawa commenced his journey. Per the records, the Japanese super bantamweight champion has been quite a busy fighter in his nearly decade-old career. Especially, he has participated in more than one fight every year since 2022.

His last fight against Tulio Dekanarudo ended with a fifth-round technical knockout win. However, in the previous bout, he had been so lucky. Squaring off against Toshiya Ishii, the match ended in a majority decision draw. Nevertheless, the decision allowed Shimomachi to retain his title belt.

At the opposite corner, Ryuya Tsugawa has been able to build an equally impressive resume in his six-year-old professional career. In 2018, the year when he made his debut, he fought five times! The year’s last bout, nonetheless, ended in a majority decision loss for young Tsugawa. However, hasn’t looked back ever since that setback. What followed was a 9-match winning streak. Barring one opponent, Takeshi Takehara, Ryuya Tsugawa didn’t allow any of his adversaries to walk him the distance.

So fans could expect the fight to be an intriguing one. After all, the bout is between two fighters who will enter the ring, each with a different set of strengths and strategies. Though he might have a slightly shorter reach, considering the fact that he is taller than Tsugawa, Shimomachi may try to use his physicality to maintain a distance through the fight. Then Tsugawa seems to have a tendency to go full-blast. He tries getting too close, within his opponent’s range. Hence, that is something Shimomachi may want to avoid altogether.

Likewise, he might use his superior boxing techniques to dictate the fight’s progress. Hence, Toshiki Shimomachi would try to ensure that he doesn’t get drawn into a close-quarter brawl with Ryuya Tsugawa. The 24-year-old, well known for his aggressive approach, would try to close in time and again. He will ensure there’s little gap between him and the super bantamweight champion. However, once he is inside Shimomachi’s reach, Tsugawa could be expected to close the deal with short, powerful punches.

Unfortunately, little detail seems to be available on the fight purses of both the Japanese boxers. Star attraction Naoya Inoue is expected to take home a record-breaking $6.5 million, according to a report from ‘NYFights’.

Between Toshiki Shimomachi and Ryuya Tsugawa, who is your pick for the win on Tuesday?