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Can Julian Smith's reach advantage overpower Ergashev's knockout prowess? Who's your pick for the win?

So what if his first attempt at a world failed? The ‘Descendent of Tamerlane’ will always find a route to make a comeback even if that means catching up with a contender just a step above. A win will definitely give that much-needed fillip to stake a claim at another title eliminator and so forth. And what better way to commence the campaign than having the year’s second bout in front of fellow Detroiters? Eight months after he suffered his first career loss, the Uzbek heavy-hitter, Shohjahon Ergashev, will face the Illinoisan Julian Smith for a ten-round light welterweight bout at the Claressa Shield‘s heavyweight debut against the Canadian Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse at Detroit’s Little Caesars Arena tomorrow.

For Ergashev, it’s a good opportunity to stage a comeback campaign. Given his advancing age, in sheer boxing terms, opportunities might be getting slim. So does the situation hold for Smith as well? Legally deaf, the prospect has been impressing everyone with his boxing skills. He could tip the scale in his favor against the tough Uzbek.

Shohjahon Ergashev vs. Julian Smith: A Fighter Breakdown

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There’s not much of an age gap between the two boxers. Where Julian Smith would turn 34 on November 10, Shohjahon Ergashev will be 32 a month later, on December 12. Standing at 5 feet and ten-and-a-half inches or 179 centimeters, the ‘Descendent of Tamerlane’ enjoys a slight edge in terms of height against ‘The Quiet Storm’, who comes in at 5 feet and nine inches or 175 centimeters.

The results of the final weigh-in are yet to be in. However, given how they weighed in their last few fights, it is safe to assume that both should be able to make it to the division’s sanctioned weight limits. For his fight against Juan Huertas, Ergashev stood around 141.3 pounds, but against Subriel Matias, the scale read 139.8 pounds. On the other hand, Julian Smith weighed 139.2 pounds against Orestes Velazquez. His final weight result against Julio Rosa was 139.3 pounds.

Unfortunately, not much is known about the American fighter’s hand reach. Shohjahon Ergashev’s hands stretch up to 71 inches or 180 centimeters.

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Can Julian Smith's reach advantage overpower Ergashev's knockout prowess? Who's your pick for the win?

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The ‘Descendent of Tamerlane’ perhaps didn’t mull over the Subriel Matias loss too much and decided to move on. In his trademark style, the Uzbek warrior demolished the Panamanian Huertas in the opening round of their bout on March 26 at Detroit’s Wayne State Fieldhouse. Out of the eight fights he fought since 2020, all but one ended via early stoppages. So this kind of gives an impression of how he prefers to put a lid on questions thrown at him.

Since his debut nine years ago, Shohjahon Ergashev has participated in 25 fights. Barring the exception of the Matias loss, his record displays 24 wins with 21 secured through knockouts. Thus lending him a massive knockout-to-win rate of 87.5%.

Julian Smith, on the other hand, commenced his career relatively late. His debut bout occurred on July 29, 2018, against Seth Basler. He suffered his first loss four years later, on March 25, 2022. Roughly a year later, he met with another setback. However, displaying his determination and grit, Smith made a strong comeback, winning the next two bouts. Especially the last fight against Orestes Velazquez, a pedigreed Cuban fighter who reportedly ranked among the WBA’s top ten with an unbeaten record, catapulted his fame across the boxing world. With 2 losses and 8 wins, out of which 5 came via knockouts, ‘The Desert Strom’s knockout-to-win rate remains at 62.5%.

Shohjahon Ergashev vs. Julian Smith: Who will win?

In terms of ring activity, the American boxer comes out a bit busier. Since 2022, he has been fighting at least twice a year. He is already done with the year’s fight context. But one has to take into cognizance his two losses as well. While he finished off Velazquez in the most decisive manner, one shouldn’t forget that his win against the Puerto Rican Julio Rosa was a narrow one.

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Unless he turns the tides in the upcoming fight and the ones thereafter, the ‘Descendent of Tamerlane’ might have to live with that lone loss to Matias for some time. Incidentally, he came for the title challenge after a gap of over 12 months. During the match against Matias, he started off very strongly, pushing the Puerto Rican on the back foot. But from the fourth round onwards, the patient Puerto Rican launched some heavy body shots that seemingly shook up the Uzbek. Unfortunately, the fight couldn’t reach a conclusion as he decided to pull out before the sixth round, mentioning a leg injury as the reason.

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Per the details available on ‘Box.Live,’ Shohjahon Ergashev remains the heavy favorite to win at the fight night tomorrow. Against winning odds of -710, or 82.83%, Julian Smith seems to have a roughly +450, or 17.17%, chance of winning. However, given how ‘The Quiet Storm’ has never been subdued in the ring, it doesn’t appear that he would let the Uzbek strongman go off so easily. Fans better watch out for an exciting thriller at the Little Caesars Arena tomorrow.

After going through the brief details, do you feel Julian Smith can stage an upset against Shohjahon Ergashev?

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