A thrilling two-day title fight is set to take place in Tokyo, Japan, on October 13 and 14 showcasing some of the biggest names in boxing. Kicking off the action on day one at the Ariake Arena in Koto-Ku, WBA bantamweight champion Takuma Inoue will defend his title against the WBA second-ranked Seiya Tsutsumi in a highly anticipated showdown. The seven bouts on this mega card are promoted by Japan’s Teiken Promotions and will be streamed live in the United States via ESPN+. While Takuma’s older brother, Naoya Inoue, has already made a name for himself in the United States, all eyes are now on Takuma. The burning question remains: Can he follow in his brother’s footsteps and prove his potential on the world stage as he faces the undefeated Tsutsumi?

Let’s begin with Inoue (20-1-0). The 28-year-old WBA champion will enter the ring for the third time this year to defend his title for, coincidentally, the third time as well. He is on a seven-fight win streak, having defeated veteran boxer Sho Ishida in his last outing via unanimous decision. Before that, Inoue took on former IBF super flyweight champion Jerwin Ancajas, scoring a 9th-round knockout. At the beginning of 2024, Inoue took on Liborio Solis and clinched a unanimous decision win. The only loss the 28-year-old suffered was against former WBC bantamweight champion Nordine Oubaali in November 2019, a fight he lost on the judges’ scorecard.

Overall, Inoue is used to facing much more experienced boxers and coming out victorious. However, Tsutsumi will be the first undefeated opponent Inoue will face since he lost to Oubaali. Interestingly, Takuma Inoue previously defeated Tasana Salapat by a unanimous decision in December 2018. Salapat will return to the ring on the same card, facing Junto Nakatani on October 14th, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the event. Scooting over to Tsutsumi (11-0-2), this upcoming bout marks his first major title fight, and only the second fight this year. The 28-year-old previously held a regional title from 2022 to 2023, showcasing his steady rise in the ranks. Though Tsutsumi remains unbeaten, it’s worth noting that in 2020, he suffered two back-to-back draws against Kazuki Nakajima and former WBC flyweight champion Daigo Higa. 

Regardless, Tsutsumi is on a six-fight win streak, having defeated Weerawat Noolae via a 4th-round knockout in his last outing. Before that, he defeated Kazuki Anaguchi and Riku Masuda via a unanimous decision. It’s also worth mentioning that the upcoming bout will be his first stab at a 12-round matchup, unlike Inoue, who has grown accustomed to the higher number of rounds. So, it would be interesting to see how Tsutsumi transitions into longer rounds, which will demand more stamina. 

Inoue has been the more active boxer this year. However, in 2023, Tsutsumi fought three times, while Inoue only stepped into the ring once due to a rib injury sustained during his preparations for the Ancajas fight. Fortunately, this injury doesn’t appear to have significantly impacted his performance. Based solely on their resumes, it’s highly likely that Inoue will have his hand raised in victory after 12 rounds of intense battle. Not only does he bring a wealth of experience and skill to the ring, but he has also faced a significantly higher caliber of opposition compared to Tsutsumi. This experience against tough competitors should give him a considerable edge, allowing him to navigate the fight without encountering substantial difficulties.

Takuma Inoue vs. Seiya Tsutsumi: Attributes

The physical attributes of a boxer can provide an edge in a boxing match, but the question remains: who has the better features in this pairing? While both fighters are of the same age, Tsutsumi holds a slight advantage in height, standing at 5′ 5½″ (166 cm) compared to Inoue’s 5′ 4″ (163 cm). Tsutsumi also has a marginal edge in reach. Inoue’s wingspan measures 64″ (163 cm), while Tsutsumi’s is just a touch longer at 64½″ (164 cm). Though Tsutsumi comes out ahead in both height and reach, the differences are too small to give either fighter a decisive physical advantage. Now, what about their weight? Could that be a factor?

The fighters’ official weights will be revealed at the final weigh-ins, but their past bouts provide some insight into what we can expect. Inoue has consistently weighed around 117 pounds for his last three fights, with exact weights of 117¾, 117¾, and 118 pounds. Tsutsumi’s recent history is similar, except for his last fight, which took place in the super bantamweight division. In his previous three bantamweight bouts, Tsutsumi also weighed in at 117¾, 117¾, and 118 pounds. Therefore, it’s likely that both fighters will come in at a similar weight for this match, meaning neither will hold a significant advantage in this department.

Will the fight see a knockout? 

Knockouts are the most exciting part of a boxing match, and scoring one can enhance a boxer’s overall portfolio. Inoue currently doesn’t have an attractive track record with knockouts, having won just five fights out of his 20 by way of a knockout, which puts his KO ratio at 25%. In his last six fights, Inoue has managed to score a mere two knockouts. Most of his bouts go the distance, and even when the knockouts come, they are too different from each other—to precisely predict when Inoue may look to end the fight.

On the flip side, Tsutsumi does have a better knockout ratio of 72.73%, which converts to 8 knockout wins out of his 11. However, Tsutsumi’s quality of opponents over the years holds his advantage in this department back significantly. Regardless, in his last six fights, the 28-year-old has scored 4 knockout wins. It’s difficult to say whether Tsutsumi will replicate his knockout performance against Inoue; but in case a knockout or knockdown does come, it will likely be from Tsutsumi’s side. 

Still, the fight will go the distance because Inoue has faced much tougher opposition in the past, and going the distance in fights seems to be his game plan. Not to mention, Tsutsumi has never fought in a 12-round fight, so Inoue may look to take advantage of that by letting the fight drag on to the late rounds of the bout. That being said, the upcoming fight between Takuma Inoue and Seiya Tsutsumi should be an epic battle of experience vs. sheer will. Although Inoue is favored to win the fight, recent outcomes in other matches have shown that you should never underestimate an underdog.

What are your predictions for this matchup? Does Tsutsumi stand a chance? Share in the comments.