It’s an all-Mexican war on paper. Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez defends his undisputed super middleweight crown against the undefeated Jaime Munguia on May 4 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. While some see it as an easy night in the office for the champion, others believe it might trigger a change in guard at the 168-pound division. But does the challenger have what it takes to down the face of boxing?

It’s a typical showdown of brawler vs. counterpuncher, aggression vs. calculation, and youth vs. experience. The stakes are high, and the future of the super middleweight division hinges on this showdown. While the official weigh-ins are underway, let us look at how the two fellow compatriots stack up before they meet inside the squared circle.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia: Tale of the tape

Alvarez, at 33, has more fights under his belt, and his impressive record of 60-2-2 with 39 KOs tells the story of a kid from Guadalajara who turned pro at 15 and built a reputation for knocking out older and experienced opponents. He boasts a KO ratio of 65% which has shown a dip in recent years because of a hand injury for which he even underwent surgery in 2022. All his victories since then have come by way of unanimous decision. Moreover, Alvarez at 5 feet 8 inches (173cm) tall and a reach of 70.5″ (179cm) is comparatively smaller than his opponent. However, Canelo is a prime example of how size does not equal skill.

Jaime Munguia is the younger of the two at 27 and is nearing his prime. While he is young and brimming with youthful energy, he is not short of experience, as he has an unblemished 43-0 record. He has a fan-friendly style and his splendid KO ratio of 79% hints at his eagerness to finish fights. The Tijuana native has wider dimensions than the champion, as he stands taller at 6’0″ (183cm) and carries a reach advantage of two inches at 72.0″ (183cm). What’s more? He last weighed 167.8 lbs (76.1 kgs) when he stood at the scales, compared to Alvarez’s 168.0 lbs (76.2 kgs). But how do these numbers translate into performance?

A clash of contrasting fighting styles and approaches

Munguia is coming off with a strong KO victory over John Ryder, which put the latter into retirement. This win propelled him to the championship fight with Alvarez, as the Mexican champion had only mustered a decision win against Ryder last May. Munguia wanted a statement win to bag Alvarez’s signature, and he did it in style.

What sets Munguia apart is his brave heart, aggression, phenomenal work rate, and come-forward style. Trainer Freddie Roach has helped him evolve into a heavy hitter and volume puncher who spells trouble for anyone boxing with him. However, he has a leaky defense, as he prefers landing one of his own punches to shielding his chin. He also lags behind Alvarez in a skill matchup. However, his granite chin is already the stuff of legends. But so is Canelo’s.

Alvarez has a swift pair of legs, quick hand,s and a better head movement. He leaves a stingy sensation on the skin as he connects his heavy punches. A technical master like him can prove to be a bad matchup for Munguia because he has never been tested against someone of Canelo’s caliber. While Alvarez comes into the fight on the heels of a comfortable win against Jermell Charlo, he can expect Munguia to give him hell and keep him on his toes. But will that be enough to dislodge him?

Prediction: Who wins it?

When was the last time Alvarez knocked his opponent out? It was Caleb Plant in 2021, And that too was an 11th-round TKO to be precise. Since then, fans have been waiting for him to put on a show, but his last two fights against Ryder and Charlo didn’t live up to the hype. This time, he is confident of pulling off a finish within eight rounds. At 33, he believes he still has some years left in him, and you can expect him to land a big one on Munguia’s temple and knock him out.

Alvarez’s fight IQ, experience, and quick reflexes, along with his head movement and fast hands, might make it hard for Munguia to land his deadly punches. Additionally, Munguia might not want to exchange blows with Alvarez because the latter’s precise counterpunches may probably leave him frustrated, and that’s where he might face an uphill task. Alas, we forget, this is not the first time Canelo is facing a heavy hitter. He has already faced and defeated Gennadiy Golovkin, not once but twice. And Golovkin was one of the heaviest punchers, with 37 of his 42 victories coming by way of knockout. However, there is a blueprint for Munguia to follow, laid out by Floyd Mayweather and successfully followed by Dmitry Bivol.

Employ jabs, maintain the distance especially when punching, and keep up the pressure. Sergey Kovalev also made Alvarez sweat as he used jabs to set up power shots. If Munguia can stick to the game plan and execute it well, we might see Alvarez in a tight spot. If Munguia fails to do so, he will still exit the arena with a hefty paycheck but with a loss in his record column.

What do you make of this coming fight between Canelo Alvarez and Jaime Munguia? Do you think the undisputed crown will exchange hands this time? Let us know in the comments below.