The golden era of the ‘Big Three’ saw three men making the finals consistently for over a decade. Just when we thought we would miss that dominance, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz conquered the courts. At the start of 2025, if you were told the Indian Wells final would feature a 23-year-old and a 21-year-old, you’d probably bet on Sinner and Alcaraz. Instead, it’s No. 13 Holger Rune and No. 14 Jack Draper battling for the title. While both are talented, few expected them to take center stage. Even Coco Gauff’s ex-coach, Brad Gilbert, is weighing in on the reason for these new finalists.

Jack Draper punched his ticket to the final after a wild 6-1, 0-6, 6-4 victory over Alcaraz. The Brit held his nerve in a match that had everything—momentum swings, intensity, and a shocking result. His win also put an end to Alcaraz’s bid for a historic three-peat at Indian Wells. Meanwhile, the Dane, having dealt with inconsistency, snapped a seven-match losing streak in the semi-finals with a strong win over two-time Indian Wells runner-up Daniil Medvedev.

As the unexpected final took shape, Gilbert took to X and shared his thoughts. He wrote, “biggest takeaway from IW on mens side. way more opportunity for a final like we have today with the absence of Sin City 🌆 the way he has been playing the last 18 months, he would have been in the final today.”

Jannik Sinner’s absence from the tournament has cast a long shadow over the men’s game. The World No.1 is serving a three-month suspension for doping violations in 2024, a shocking turn of events considering his dream season last year.

The Italian tennis star finished with a 73-6 record, won the Australian Open and US Open, and ended the year with a staggering 5,000-point lead over Alcaraz. Despite that, the Spaniard had his moments against Sinner in 2024.

He won all three of their head-to-head meetings, proving he can hit an even higher level than his Italian rival. But when it came to consistency, Sinner was on another level, collecting eight titles to Alcaraz’s four.

It looks like Carlos Alcaraz might also have to say goodbye to his chances of closing the gap with Jannik Sinner in terms of ranking.

Carlos Alcaraz misses out on Jannik Sinner’s top spot

The World No.3 finds himself in a tricky situation. His loss in Indian Wells means he missed out on a golden chance to close the ranking gap with Sinner. If he wants to overtake the Italian, he needs to rack up 3,220 points in his next four events. That means winning three out of four tournaments and reaching at least one more final. Not an easy task. Alexander Zverev is in a similar spot.

Alexander Zverev faces a crucial period before the Italian Open, needing to defend 650 ranking points across four tournaments: Miami (400), Monte-Carlo (100), the BMW Open (50), and Madrid (100). Simultaneously, with Jannik Sinner’s temporary absence, Zverev has a potential 3500 points to gain from the three ATP 1000 events (Miami, Monte-Carlo, Madrid) and the BMW Open.

There is a 2435 (9730 – 7295) Points gap between Sinner and Zverev. To bridge the 2435-point gap, Alexander Zverev must capture approximately 70% of the 3500 points available during Sinner’s absence. While winning all three ATP 1000 tournaments is considered highly improbable, he could achieve his goal by winning two of them and securing the remaining points through strong performances in the other two events.

Alternatively, a single ATP 1000 title coupled with deep runs, such as a final and a semi-final in the remaining two, supplemented by a victory at the BMW Open, would suffice. Finally, consistently reaching the finals in all three ATP 1000 tournaments and winning the BMW Open would also provide the necessary points.

Sinner has now spent 40 weeks as the ATP World No.1 and is set to climb higher on the all-time list. In the coming weeks, he will overtake Andy Murray (41 weeks) and Gustavo Kuerten (43 weeks), securing the 13th spot in history.

The road ahead isn’t getting any easier. Up next is the Miami Open, starting March 19. Ironically, the reigning Miami champion is none other than Jannik Sinner, who will be missing in action. Can Alcaraz and Zverev take advantage, or will the shake-up continue?