Paris Olympics Final: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

“I managed to overcome this big hurdle. I must be honest and say that I was thinking about all the semifinals that I lost.” Coming from Novak Djokovic, this was a massive surprise as he has repeatedly showcased his ability to put the past behind him and go clutch. This tournament is different, though, with national pride at stake. Novak Djokovic has always raised his game for the Olympics, with each semifinal defeat coming at the hands of the eventual gold medalist – Rafael Nadal (2008), Andy Murray (2012), and Alexander Zverev (2021). The win over Lorenzo Musetti saw the ‘Serbinator’ enter uncharted territory. 

Having gotten the monkey off his back with a rare first, Djokovic may play freely as he is guaranteed his best-ever Olympic finish. He has promised to go for gold, especially considering he’s  “been waiting for this for almost 20 years.” But it’s easier said than done as he must get past the red-hot Carlos Alcaraz, who said, “I’m going to give Spain what they want, which is gold.” Now, would both players be thinking of their previous meeting just 21 days back? Fans certainly are, especially if they caught this pattern. 

In 2012, Andy Murray avenged his Wimbledon defeat with a win over an exhausted Roger Federer (who played a 4-hour 26-minute semifinal). Djokovic will not be as lucky, considering Carlos Alcaraz had a relatively straightforward 75-minute match against Félix Auger-Aliassime, overcoming the Canadian 6-1, 6-1. The Serbian may have had a slight edge had Spain still been in the men’s doubles competition, thereby denying the four-time Grand Slam champion a rest day before the singles gold medal clash. 

A win for Djokovic will see him join Serena Williams, Rafael Nadal, Andre Agassi, and Steffi Graf in the Career Golden Slam Club; a win for Alcaraz will see him join Steffi Graf and Rafael Nadal as tennis players to win the French Open, Wimbledon, and the Olympics in the same year.

Djokovic vs Alcaraz: Paris Olympics (Final) Preview

Novak Djokovic will head into his maiden Olympic final on the back of five straight sets wins (vs Ebden, Nadal, Köepfer, Tsitsipas, Musetti) and no doubles distractions. However, he has not yet overcome one hurdle that has plagued him all season – beating a top-10 player. The Serb’s highest-ranked opponent has been No. 11-ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas. 

One thing, though, is that he has gotten valuable on-court time and crucial matches under his belt after his knee procedure. He said, “I feel like I’m a different player than I was at Wimbledon, the way I move, the way I’m striking the ball.” The win over Nadal in Round 2 also allowed ‘Nole’ to settle a score from Beijing 2008 and would’ve done his confidence a world of good. 

Will this be enough for Djokovic to end his 0-3 top-10 streak for 2024 against the hottest player on tour? We don’t think so, as Carlos Alcaraz has raised his game and has a personal mission against his Olympic final opponent. 

Unlike Djokovic, the Spaniard has not suffered Olympic heartbreaks. However, the wounds of the 2023 French Open semifinal may still be fresh. On June 9, 2023, Alcaraz suffered cramps and feebly surrendered the third and fourth sets to ‘Nole.’ He has not lost a singles match at Roland Garros since then, lifting La Coupe des Mousquetaires earlier this year and securing five straight sets wins (vs Habib, Griekspoor, Safiullin, Paul, Auger-Aliassime) at the Olympics. 

What better place to avenge that defeat than on the same stage itself? The gold medal remains the primary motivation, but this backstory can spur the 21-year-old. 

Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz: Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have played six official matches, with the duo splitting their meetings equally. When it comes to finals, Alcaraz has a 2-1 lead. 

• Wimbledon 2024: Alcaraz beat Djokovic 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 (7/4)
• Cincinnati 2023: Djokovic beat Alcaraz 5-7, 7-6 (9/7), 7-6 (7/4)
• Wimbledon 2023: Alcaraz beat Djokovic 1-6, 7-6 (8/6), 6-1, 3-6, 6-4

It’s all not bleak for Djokovic fans, as the duo are tied 1-1 on the red dirt. Although the Spaniard was hurt in their 2023 outing, the record books only show the numbers. 

• French Open 2023: Djokovic won 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1
• Madrid 2022: Alcaraz won 6-7 (5/7), 7-5, 7-6 (7/5)

Carlos Alcaraz has always needed a seventh game to clinch a set against Novak Djokovic on clay! But that can be spun around to say that the youngster can hold his own against the best in the game at the business end of a set. So what’s favoring Djokovic fans? They can find solace in the fact that the 21-year-old has never secured successive wins over the Serb. And here’s another reason for them to rejoice: Djokovic is undefeated against the Spaniard in three-set finals.

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in three sets

Carlos Alcaraz will have the psychological advantage, especially after his straight-set win at Wimbledon 2024. Djokovic claims to be hitting the ball better, but the Spaniard has been imperious at Roland Garros, allowing a measly 2 of 9 break point conversions and recording 17 breaks of serve (44.73%). Djokovic, unfortunately, has not been as clinical for us to position him as the winner, having suffered 7 service breaks (15 break points faced). However, he’s not required a third set yet, having generated a whopping 45 break opportunities and converted 22 (48.88%).

The Spaniard’s break-point conversion rate is lower, but he has been solid on serve and will not allow Djokovic to have as many looks. However, if Alcaraz’s first serve dips as it did in the semis (58%), Djokovic could relentlessly pounce on the youngster’s second serves, dictate rallies, and earn a crucial break. Should this happen on Sunday, Alcaraz’s own break point conversion rate will come under the scanner.

As of now, it is on Djokovic to raise his level. But wait, he doesn’t really need to do that for extended periods. The Serbian can bring his years of experience to the fore, understand that he is physically outmatched, and look to expend energy at the right moments. We could see ‘Clutchovic’ emerge on Chatrier in tie breaks, or if he generates break opportunities, or at 30-30 games deep in the sets. The Serb leads Alcaraz 3-2 in breakers, and we can expect at least one of these (if not more) on August 4.  

The Spaniard seems to be in the driver’s seat, with only combinations of stats and what-ifs offering Novak Djokovic a look-in. In an arena where ‘Victory Belongs to the Most Tenacious,’ expect Carlos Alcaraz to outshine the Serb and depart with the gold around his neck.