Olympics or Grand Slams? The debate is never-ending. The tennis world is currently divided between the glitz and glamor of the Paris Olympics and the intense battle for year-end supremacy. While Carlos Alcaraz is immersed in the patriotic fervor of representing his country, Jannik Sinner, sidelined by injury, is focused on defending his world number-one ranking. But nothing can stop Alcaraz, who has said, “It’s a dream for me to bring gold home to my country.”

As the season progresses, the question remains: will Olympic glory or consistent dominance on the tour prove to be the ultimate defining factor in the race to dethrone Novak Djokovic?

In a twisted tale of fate, the Olympics offer no ranking points to tennis players. However, this fact has not done anything to deter the current World No.2 and No.3, Djokovic and Alcaraz, respectively. They are knee-deep in the quest to win their first Olympic gold. Moreover, to ensure that no stone is left unturned, the reigning Wimbledon and French Open champion has withdrawn from the upcoming Canadian Masters due to fatigue.

The 21-year-old Spaniard was ousted from the doubles and he and Rafael Nadal lost in the QFs, but he’s still going strong in the singles and has reached the finals now. Nevertheless, the physical demands of the season have forced Alcaraz to prioritize his recovery and focus on the remainder of the Olympic tournament. And he has withdrawn from the upcoming Canda Open, losing a precious chance to bring up points.

“It has been a very long season for me and due to the accumulation of matches and fatigue, I will not be able to play in Montreal this year,” four-times Grand Slam winner Alcaraz said in a Tennis Canada statement. Interestingly, Djokovic has withdrawn from the National Bank Open as well.

For 2024, while Djokovic stands at 3160 points, Alcaraz has 5950, and the World No.1 stands ahead of the two with 6200 points. For Alcaraz to make up the gap between him and Sinner, he just needs 250 points to get past the Italian sensation, as of now. However, if Sinner wins the Canada Masters, he will cement his position for the season with another 1000 points. However, the story doesn’t end here.

The last part of the story deals with who would take the baton from Djokovic. The Serbian ace ended his 2023 season by claiming his 8th year-end World No.1 honor, as he began his 400th week on the top.

But his disappointing withdrawal from Montreal, where he has won two titles, comes as he’s “recovering from my injury in a very busy calendar this summer” and “need(s) to make hard choices.”

Alcaraz is clearly ahead of the Serbian this year having won two Grand Slams and making QF of the third, and also einning the Indian Wells title. Meanwhile, Djokovic is still title-less but has reached two semifinals and one Grand Slam final in what has been an overall dismal year. Chances for the Serbian to pull ahead are difficult to come by right now, but Alcaraz might at leats climb to No. 2, if not World No. 1 anytime soon.

Interestingly, given the choice of Grand Slams or Olympics, Alcaraz had said earlier this year, “I would say the Olympic title. It’s a dream for me to bring gold home to my country Spain. The gold medal is one of the greatest things in sport. I mean, I’d prefer to win Olympic gold this year… even though I’d like to win both, I won’t lie.”

But as youngsters make their way forward, who would be the next year-end top player? Would Alcaraz somehow make it to the top? as Djokovic is unlikely to retain his title as he stands at 6th place in the Live ATP Rankings, struggling with his knee.

Here’s how Alcaraz can bridge the gap to be the next World No.1

There is a way Alcaraz can get to the top in the nick of time. Let’s analyze how many points Alcaraz needs to cover sinner before the US Open. In case Sinner wins the Canada Masters, he would add another 1000 to his existing lead of 250 points, thus taking the gap to 1250. However. there is a slight chance that the Spaniard could get through despite missing the Canada tour.

He has the chance to recover these 1000 points at the Cincinnati Masters. And the remaining 250 points could be easily covered at the US Open. Alcaraz would be entering the Hard Court slam as a defending champion and a favorite to win it. The winners of Grand Slam are awarded 2000 points each. Hence, he could cover this and further some extra points to take care of the gains made by the Italian.

However, this speculation is based on the fact that the Spaniard is free from all the fatigue accumulated until and recovers enough to make it back on the court to keep his chances alive.