Novak Djokovic declared that “history will be on the line” as he prepares to face Carlos Alcaraz and in the Wimbledon men’s singles final. While the calendar may have turned a page, the dominance of Alcaraz and Djokovic on the hallowed grass courts remains undeniable. The Serbian had very little to no hope coming into the event due to his injury, he defied the odds, stunned everyone, and made his way into the finals. On the other hand, the young Spaniard, coming from his recent French Open triumph is determined to lay his hands on Wimbledon as well. Will Djokovic be able to turn his fate and match Roger Federer‘s iconic record at the grass major or will Alcaraz repeat his 2023 fate?

Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz: Preview

Djokovic, currently ranked no. 2 in the world, displayed a dominant performance to reach the final, securing impressive victories over Vit Kopriva, Jacob Fearnley, Alexei Popyrin, Holger Rune, Alex De Minaur (walkover), and Lorenzo Musetti. In the semifinals, Djokovic defeated Musetti in straight sets, showcasing his aggressive play with 52 winners and 6 aces. He maintained a strong service game, winning 75% of points on his first serve. Djokovic’s season highlights include a semifinal finish at the Australian Open and Wimbledon. With a 23-6 win-loss record in 2024 and an undefeated run on grass, Djokovic remains a formidable force.

On the other hand, Alcaraz is only a couple of months past his 21th birthday, and yet this whole Grand Slam success thing is already a bit been-there, done-that for him. The No. 3 tennis player reached the final after defeating Mark Lajal, Aleksandar Vukic, Frances Tiafoe, Ugo Humbert, Tommy Paul, and Daniil Medvedev.

On Friday, he took another step toward his second consecutive Wimbledon title and fourth major overall, overcoming a slow start to 6-7 (1), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 defeat Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals, scoring 127 points and hitting 47 winners. He served 6 aces with only 2 double faults, winning 73% of his first serve points. Despite conceding his serve three times, Alcaraz broke Medvedev six times. His top achievements in 2024 include titles at Indian Wells and the French Open. Alcaraz has a 32-6 win-loss record this year, with a strong 7-1 on grass.

“I feel like I’m not new anymore. I feel like I know how I’m going to feel before the final. I’ve been in this position before,” Alcaraz said. “I will try to do the things that I did well last year and try to be better.”

Djokovic vs Alcaraz: Head-to-head

When it comes to the head-to-head statistics between the two players, Novak has a slight lead over his Spanish opponent. Over the 5 encounters that they have already had, the Serbian leads him with a 3-2 head-to-head advantage.

• ATP Masters 1000 Madrid, 2022 – Clay – Alcaraz won 6-7, 7-5, 7-6.
• French Open, 2023 – Clay- Djokovic won 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1.
• Wimbledon, 2023 – Grass – Alcaraz won 1-6, 7-6(6), 6-1, 3-6, 6-4
• Cincinnati Open, 2023 – Hard – Djokovic won 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(4)
• Nitto ATP Finals, 2023 – Hard – Djokovic won 6-3, 6-2.

Thus, their meeting on grass will be the 6th time when the two stars go head-to-head against each other.

Prediction: Alcaraz to clinch the title yet again after dominating Djokovic

Who doesn’t remember that Djokovic’s bid for victory in Wimbledon 2023 was hindered by several factors: strong winds, an excessive number of unforced errors, a crucial second-set tiebreaker loss, and Alcaraz’s powerful serves. Will a similar scenario unfold this year? Let’s talk straight.

Carlos Alcaraz will need to produce his best tennis to overcome Novak Djokovic and retain the Wimbledon title. While he’s reached the final, his performances haven’t yet matched his peak form. Despite this, the French Open champion is favored to prevent Djokovic from equaling Federer’s Wimbledon record.

Djokovic’s recent knee surgery adds an intriguing element, as his recovery has not been fully tested on grass. Alcaraz, renowned for his big-match temperament, possesses the youthful exuberance and firepower to challenge Djokovic. The Spaniard arrives with added confidence from a recent Grand Slam victory, while Djokovic seeks redemption after a title-less season.

The Serb’s experience is undeniable, but Alcaraz’s attacking style and superior movement could expose any vulnerabilities in Djokovic’s game, particularly his knee. Ultimately, while Djokovic is a formidable opponent, Alcaraz’s recent dominance and Djokovic’s uncertain fitness suggest the younger Spaniard holds the edge.

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to retain his title in four sets.