Alex de Minaur is on the verge of making history! The 25-year-old is set to become the first Australian in 20 years to make the ATP Finals. However, a steep challenge presents itself, as he will face Danish star, Holger Rune, in the quarter-final of the Paris Masters on Friday. Both these players are currently hunting for a place in Turin. If De Minaur wins this match, then he’d almost secure his spot, and even if he loses against Rune, there would still be a chance for a qualification. However, it’s not that easy for the Dane! Holger Rune needs to win the title to qualify for the mega-event which would take place later this month. So, who is the favorite in this enticing encounter in Paris?

Alex de Minaur vs Holger Rune: Preview

Alex de Minaur started his season pretty well…He reached the final of the ATP Rotterdam event in February and then won the Mexican Open by beating Casper Ruud 6-4,6-4. After that, he won his second title of the season at the s-Hertogenbosch, NL. However, his incredible run at the initial phase of this season was halted by a hip injury during the Wimbledon Championships. It had sidelined him for quite a significant time. Although he looked quite impressive in his previous three matches in Paris, it needs to be seen how well he starts this match. Alex de Minaur will enter this contest after beating, the British star, Jack Draper by three sets (5-7, 6-2, 6-3) in the R16.

Holger Rune, on the other hand, has made quite a few long runs in his previous tournaments this year, but the 21-year-old has failed to make it count when it mattered the most. He’s yet to win a title this year. Rune started his season pretty well by reaching the final of the Brisbane International, but in that match, he was defeated by Bulgaria’s Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets (7-6(5), 6-4). Having said that, Rune started his campaign at the Paris Masters with a win against Italy’s Matteo Arnaldi in the R64 (6-4, 6-4). After that, he beat the likes of Alexander Bublik (6-4, 6-2) and the local lad, Arthur Cazaux, (3-6, 6-3, 6-4) on his route to the QF. Still confused? Well, a head-to-head comparison might give you a clearer picture…

De Minaur vs Rune: Head-to-Head

Alex de Minaur and Holger Rune are currently two of the most promising players on the Tour. They have faced each other four times in their careers and currently, the H2H record is well-poised at 2-2. Here’s a look at their past clashes:

• 2023 Queen’s Club Championships SF: De Minaur 6-3,7-6(2).
• 2023 Acapulco SF: De Minaur 3-6,7-5,6-2.
• 2022 Basel R32: Rune 6-2,7-5.
• 2022 Stockholm SF: Rune 4-6,7-6(1),7-5.

Prediction: Rune to win in three sets

Holger Rune won the title at this venue in 2022. So, he surely knows a way or two on how to bring out his A-game on this surface. On the other hand, Alex de Minaur reached the QF in the 2023 season. Hence, we can’t rule him out of this competition. However, with expect Rune to approach this match with a lot of determination, and surely he’s hungry to end up his season on a higher note. He is currently ranked 13th in the world and has a win-loss record of 45-23. Alex de Minaur (10) has a win-loss record of 48-17.

On paper, the Aussie seems to have an edge, but considering his recent issues with injuries and lack of form, Holger Rune will most likely be the favorite in this contest. Now, if we shift our focus to their playing styles, Rune is more of an all-court player with some impressive defensive skills. He loves using his compact forehand and his consistent backhand to unsettle his opponents during the matches. Holger Rune is also a good server and has an aggressive return in his armory. Rune has hit 418 aces this season and committed 182 double faults. Additionally, he is 16-10 on hard courts in 2024. He also has an 81.1% winning percentage in service games on hard courts, and a 21.5% winning percentage in return games (244 of 301 service games, and 65 of 302 return games). In the last match, he hit 14 aces against Cazaux. So, surely the Aussie will need to be wary of this!

Talking about Alex de Minaur, he is an exceptional returner of the ball, and has a 20-6 record in seven tournaments on hard courts this year. He’s also won 82.2% of his service games and 34.1% of his return games. on hard courts. De Minaur is known for his pace and agility on the court. Apart from that, his unique ability to retrieve seemingly impossible balls and hit winners from even the defensive positions is what impresses the fans the most. De Minaur also has the ability to inject a sudden pace into his rallies to surprise his opponents. However, his backhand is on the weaker side in comparison to his forehand on the offensive note. Overall, considering this factors, and Rune’s record in this tournament, we feel the Dane might take away the victory in this match against the ‘Demon.’