Alex de Minaur eased past Grigor Dimitrov in just 44 minutes on Friday to seal the spot in his maiden Monte Carlo semifinal. The World No.10 handed a double bagel to the Bulgarian in a display of scintillating tennis. However, the Aussie would know that the job is far from done. To make it into his first-ever Monte Carlo summit clash this weekend, he will have to overcome one more challenge on Saturday. He’s set to face Italian Lorenzo Musetti in the final 4 battle. So who’s likely to have the last laugh? Let’s try to find out.

Alex de Minaur v Lorenzo Musetti: Preview

Alex de Minaur started this season on a glorious note, making it to the QF of the Australian Open, before he lost to the eventual champion Jannik Sinner. De Minaur shone brightly at ATP Rotterdam too, where he reached the final but failed to lift the trophy, losing the final against an in-form Carlos Alcaraz. Then at the Qatar Open, too, he ended up in the R8 before crashing out owing to a defeat against eventual winner Andrey Rublev.

However, his form took a dip in the next three ATP tournaments. At the Dubai Tennis Championships, Indian Wells, and Miami Open, Alex was ousted in R32, R16, and R16, respectively. However, at Monte Carlo, he seems to have regained his momentum. The Aussie began his campaign with a straight-set win over Tomas Machac in R32 and replicated a similar sort of dominance against Daniil Medvedev, in R16, before thrashing Dimitrov (6-0, 6-0) in the QF.

His opponent Lorenzo Musetti, on the other hand, has had a mediocre season so far. He began 2025 on a promising note, reaching the QF of the Hong Kong Open back in January. But at the Australian Open, he couldn’t go past the third round. The Italian did reasonably well at the Argentina Open, reaching the QF stage. But since then, he’s been in poor form.

Across the two Sunshine Double events (Indian Wells and Miami Open), Musetti failed to impress as he was ousted in R32 and R16, respectively. At the Monte Carlo, however, he’s been in a red-hot form. Especially after a stunning victory over the defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday. In the QF encounter, Musetti eliminated the Greek pro with a score line of 1-6, 6-3, 6-4.

De Minaur vs Musetti: Head-to-Head

These two players have met each other twice. Currently, the h2h tally is tied at 1-1. When they had a face-off last time, it was Musetti who emerged as the winner during the Queen’s Club Championships last season.

• 2024 Queen’s Club Championships R32: Musetti 1-6, 6-4, 6-2
• 2022 Australian Open R128: de Minaur 3-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3

Prediction: Alex de Minaur to win in straight sets

Alex de Minaur has a singles record of 17-6 this season. It’s slightly better than Musetti (11-4). Speaking of their event history, the Aussie has been consistent at the Monte Carlo. Even last season, he managed to reach the QF stage before losing against the 24-time GS champion Novak Djokovic.

This edition has marked De Minaur’s best run at Monte Carlo yet, with a semifinal spot secured. On the other hand, Musetti’s best campaign came during the 2023 Monte Carlo Masters. Two years ago, he reached the quarterfinal before losing to Jannik Sinner.

When it comes to playing styles, De Minaur is known for his speed and counterpunching abilities. Combine that with his defensive skills and a solid forehand. Musetti, on the other hand, has got a powerful one-handed backhand in his arsenal. Plus, his tactical intelligence on the court might come in handy against the Aussie. The Italian just doesn’t rely on speed and power, but also utilizes drop shots. He can also earn points through long rallies against his opponents.

Considering the recent form of these two players, De Minaur is likely to make it to the Monte Carlo Masters final. The prediction is for the Aussie to win the SF battle against Musetti in straight sets.