Monte-Carlo Masters 2024: Holger Rune vs Jannik Sinner; Preview, Prediction, Head-to-Head

The 2024 Monte Carlo Masters has reached its final stages as quarterfinal clashes come around. Holger Rune is set to play against the Miami Open champion Jannik Sinner. Both players come into the first clay Masters in different forms and aim to one-up each other with the help of the various tennis abilities in their hands. 

Rune and Sinner step into their clash after having starkly different performances in the Miami Open. Sinner in on a new high, while Rune is scrambling to earn his form back.

Holger Rune vs Jannik Sinner: Prediction

Rune began 2024 with a run to the finals in the Brisbane International. After the tournament, his best performance came in the Mexican Open semifinal. The rest of the tournaments he played were followed by early exits. In Monte Carlo, he faced Sumit Nagal in the first round and beat the Indian player 6-3, 3-6, 6-2. 3 aces and 3 double faults from Rune accompanied the 82% win on 1st serve. He also won 5 out of 11 break points, giving himself a good start on clay.

He then played against the in-form Grigor Dimitrov and barely managed a 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 win. Despite 3 aces, he only won 64% of points on first serve, gave away 53 receiving points to Dimitrov and won 43 receiving points on his own. Dimitrov also won 127 points in total, as opposed to Rune’s 125. This shows that luck was on his side, and he barely scrapped the win. 

Sinner began 2024 with his best form as he won the Australian Open. He also won the ATP Rotterdam and the Miami Open and managed a semifinal run in the Indian Wells Masters. He first ended the hopes of Sebastian Korda in Monte-Carlo, beating the American 6-1, 6-2. 2 aces and 1 double fault from the Italian were accompanied by an astounding 95% win on first serve. Sinner gave Korda only 11 receiving points and didn’t let him win any 3 break points that came his way.

He then played Jan-Lennard Struff and beat him 6-4, 6-2. After 3 aces, Sinner managed an 85% win on first serve and once again only gave 11 receiving points away. He won 4 break points and didn’t give Struff more than 1.

Rune vs Sinner: Head-to-Head

Rune and Sinner have played against each other three times on the ATP Tour. The Danish player leads the rivalry 2-1.

• 2022 Sofia Open semifinal: Rune 5-6, 6-4, 5-2 RET
• 2023 Nitto ATP Finals round robin: Sinner 6-2, 5-7, 6-4

His second victory over the Italian player came in the 2023 Monte Carlo Masters semifinal. Although Sinner breadsticked Rune in the first set, he would find his second wind to win back sets two and three for the final score to read 1-6, 7-5, 7-5.

Prediction: Sinner to be the victor

At the beginning of 2023, Sinner stumbled many times before he found his footing. Now, his momentum is bar none. The Italian player has already won three titles this season while only competing in four tournaments. Although Rune has a better grip on clay, Sinner’s level of tennis is second to no one at the moment. While Rune may have won their previous Monte Carlo Masters bout, his tennis is not solid at the moment.

He has faced difficulty moving ahead in most of the tournaments he has played in the season so far and has yet to face a player like Sinner in 2024. The Italian player has a much better chance of winning the match as both players step into the clash in full health. However, Rune’s better performance on clay does give him a minute chance of surprising the world number 2.

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