The clay swing couldn’t have asked for a better start. A week filled with drama, ecstasy and some high-quality tennis is now depending upon two strong clay-courters. Stefanos Tsitsipas, a two-time Monte-Carlo champion, will be up against Mr. Consistent, Casper Ruud at Court Rainer III.

Tsitsipas, a multiple times ATP Masters 1000 winner and a Monaco resident, would feel at home. Ruud, on the other hand, as a two-time Roland Garros finalist, has ample experience when it comes to big finals.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud: Monte-Carlo Masters (Final) Preview

Tsitsipas hadn’t been in the best of the forms prior to entering the tournament. He almost hit rock bottom in February when he left the ATP Top 10 for the first time in almost five years. However, the Greek found his mojo back on clay. With a couple of big wins over the likes of Jannik Sinner and Sascha Zverev, it is safe to say that the old Stefanos Tsitsipas is back.

Meanwhile, Ruud can always be trusted when it comes to clay. Aside from an unexpected loss to Pedro Martinez last week, he has looked defiant as ever. By toppling Novak Djokovic in a close three-setter, the Norwegian has announced himself as a serious threat.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud: Head-to-Head

Ruud leads Tsitsipas 2-1 in head-to-head at tour-level matches while winning their solitary clay-court battle. They also met at an ITF Italy Event back in 2016 where Tsitsipas clinched a tight three-setter.

• Los Cabos 2024 SF (H): Ruud won 6-4, 7-6(4)
• Canada Masters 2021 QF (H): Tsitsipas won 6-1, 6-4
• Madrid Masters 2021 R16 (C): Ruud won 7-6(4) 6-4
• Italy F10 (C): Tsitsipas won 6-3, 6-7(2), 7-6(2)

The sample size of head-to-head is not strong enough to conclude the outcome, especially since the only clay-court meeting came at a high altitude venue in Madrid, which quite evidently bothers Tsitsipas’ return game.

Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas to win a close Final

If we dive deep into statistics, the Greek has been incredibly dominant on serve while winning 70% of first serve points against Sinner. The same numbers crossed 80% in his previous two battles, a target Ruud has barely touched in his 7 clay-court matches this season. Tsitsipas has also notched up over 37% of the return points in all his matches this week. Ruud has managed to maintain a similar number in this metric.

In their last couple of matches at Monte-Carlo, Tsitsipas has registered 14 Aces and 6 Double Faults, compared to 8 and 8 for Ruud. The Dominance Ratio and nearly all underlying stats hint towards a Tsitsipas victory. However, Ruud would most likely record better serving numbers in the final by exploiting Stefanos’ shaky backhand wing.

Outside the serve and return metrics, it will be a battle of two strong forehands. While both excel in creating tricky cross-court angles with their groundstrokes, it will be Tsitsipas’ occasional deep but heavy forehand that will prove to be too good for the Norwegian.

Verdict: Tsitsipas to win a close three-set battle in a match featuring over 25 games. The Greek will look to hit 7 or more aces like he had in his previous two encounters, whereas Ruud might have a hard time crossing 5.