Miami Open 2024: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

‘The Magic City’ will witness a clash between two players possessing mesmerizing single-handed backhands! Stefanos Tsitsipas will play Denis Shapovalov in a Round 2 match at the 2024 Miami Open; it is one that he would not have wanted, though. Why? The Canadian, who has had a dismal 2024 with a 5-7 record (2 of these wins came in qualifying at Rotterdam), may see Friday’s Round of 64 clash against the No.10 seed as one where he will have nothing to lose except for a few ranking points – he made it to the Round of 32 in 2023 [l. to Taylor Fritz (4-6, 4-6)].

Shapovalov has an aggressive style, which could spell trouble for the Greek player if he consistently hits the lines. On the flip side, Stefanos Tsitsipas can look to conserve energy and wait for the error as he seeks to end an unwanted stat in their head-to-head. But could the Canadian take heart from his on-paper dominance on this surface against this opponent? 

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov: Miami Open (Round of 64) Preview 

Stefanos Tsitsipas will take to the courts at Hard Rock Stadium for the first time this year in singles (he clinched a straight-set win in doubles, teaming with Thanasi Kokkinakis). At Indian Wells, the Greek player beat Lucas Pouille (6-3, 6-2) and Frances Tiafoe (6-3, 6-3) before bowing out against Jiri Lehecka (2-6, 4-6) in the Round of 16. His first serve percentage dipped to 44%, with 4 double faults in the defeat against the Czech (Tsitsipas’s first serve percentages vs Pouille and Tiafoe were 59% and 62%, respectively).

A poor first serve percentage against Denis Shapovalov could prove costly heading into the European clay court swing, as Tsitsipas must reach the Round of 16 to ensure he does not lose ranking points in ‘The Sunshine State.’ The serve percentage in Stefanos Tsitsipas’s last three matches could be a cause for concern, especially if Shapovalov can repeat his opening-round display and have easy holds. 

After beating Botic Van De Zandschulp (6-1, 6-4) and losing to Lorenzo Musetti (4-6, 6-2, 5-7) in the Round of 64 in California, Denis Shapovalov kicked off his Miami Open in style. The Canadian headed to Hard Rock Stadium and sent down 16 aces against Luciano Darderi to win in 3 sets (6-3, 6-7 {3-7} 6-4). However, a repeat of the 8 double faults and first serve percentage of 68 may prove costly against a player in the world’s top 20 and nullify a massive psychological on-paper advantage. 

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov: Head to Head

Denis Shapovalov leads the head-to-head against Stefanos Tsitsipas by 3-2, with all 3 wins coming on outdoor hard courts (Tsitsipas’s 2 wins have come on clay). 

• Australian Open, 2018 (6-1, 6-3, 7-6 {7-5})
• Miami Open, 2019 (4-6, 6-3, 7-6 {7-3}) 
• ATP Cup, 2020 (7-6 {8-6}, 7-6 {7-4})

This would position the Canadian as the favorite, right? Look again. The last of these 3 matches took place over 50 months ago. A closer glance at the three contests shows that Stefanos Tsitsipas improved with every subsequent outing against Denis Shapovalov.  

Four of their five matches have been straight sets affairs, including their battles on clay. The one that went the distance came in Miami, in the tournament’s first year away from Key Biscayne. This observation from their head-to-head shows that Tsitsipas could finally get on the board in outdoor hard court matches against the Canadian, all things considered. 

Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas to advance to the Round of 32

Denis Shapovalov has not yet found his rhythm after returning to the courts in 2024, winning just 5 matches in 3 months. The Canadian will go for winners, but the concern is the unforced errors that eventually creep into his game. Shapovalov hit 55 winners and committed 22 unforced errors in the opening-round clash at Miami. At Indian Wells, he recorded 54 winners, 34 unforced errors, and 17 aces in 2 matches.

The worrying factor is the 24 double faults in the last 3 matches across the Sunshine Double events. (Tsitsipas has hit 43 winners, 29 unforced errors, 23 aces, and 7 double faults in his last 3 matches). To beat Tsitsipas, Shapovalov will have to play lights-out tennis for the better part of two sets. Should the Canadian’s game click, fans will be in for a treat as it could be a match of some of the purest ball striking, with breathtaking single-handers from both sides.

If Tsitsipas cannot find his range, he can rely on a clay court game, i.e., grind it out, keep the ball in play, demand one more shot, and draw the unforced error from his opponent. Shapovalov has already dropped a set to a player who competed in his first main draw hard court match in 2024. He even struggled to break serve (4/12), squandering 4 opportunities in the opening game itself before cashing in on the 5th.

A close match will need Shapovalov to serve like a dream. If his serve misfires, it could be a quick day in the office for the Greek. Can’t the Canadian break serve? He can, but Tsitsipas has saved 10 (71.42%) of the last 14 break points he has faced. Shapovalov’s last 30 break-point opportunities have seen a bleak 40% conversion rate. 

Read More: WATCH: Stefanos Tsitsipas Dons Peculiar Workout Kit as He Aims to Find His Mojo Back for Miami