In May 2023, Novak Djokovic hailed Carlos Alcaraz as one of the top title contenders for the French Open and stated that “he’s the player to beat on this surface.” These two have faced each other three times on the clay courts, and interestingly, the Serbian has a 2-1 lead over the 2024 French Open champion. Alcaraz calls this his “favorite” surface, but last year on this surface, he witnessed one of the biggest setbacks of his career so far. He was brought down to tears after losing the gold medal match to Djokovic at the Paris Olympics. Following that straight-set defeat, Alcaraz said, “I gave everything. It’s painful to lose the way I lost this match.” Fast forward eight months, and both these tennis stars are now all set to cross paths yet again on the dirt. 

Well, Holger Rune recently ended Carlos Alcaraz’s nine-match winning streak (14-match winning streak at the Barcelona Open) this season, by defeating him in the final by a 7-6(6),6-2 margin. Following that shocking defeat at the hands of Dane on his “favorite” surface, he’ll now be keen to pull things back on track at the Spanish capital.

At the 2025 Madrid Open, he received a BYE in the first round and hence, Alcaraz will now start his campaign against either Zizou Bergs (BEL) or Japan’s Yoshihito Nishioka in the second round. Alcaraz has never played against Bergs, but he has a 2-0 record over the Japanese star. His most recent victory against Nishioka came in the R64 of the AO.

Alcaraz will most likely come through unscathed against either of these opponents to set up a possible lip-smacking clash against the Czech, Jiri Lehecka, in the next round. Alcaraz has a 1-1 record against Lehecka, but interestingly, the Czech had the last laugh in their previous meeting at the 2025 Qatar Open. For the record, Lehecka outclassed Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev on his way to the SF at the 2024 Madrid Open.

If Alcaraz wins that match, there is a higher chance of him facing the former world number 3, Grigor Dimitrov, in the fourth round. Surprisingly, even these two have recently crossed paths at the Indian Wells, where the Spaniard got the better of the Bulgarian in the R16 by  6-1,6-1. Currently, Alcaraz has a 4-2 record over Dimitrov! Interestingly, at the 2023 Madrid Open, Alcaraz defeated Dimitrov in straight sets in the R32.

If Alcaraz manages to surpass the Bulgarian hurdle, then his probable opponents in the QF would be one amongst: Alex De Minaur, Lorenzo Musetti, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Spaniard has a staggering 6-0 record over Tsitsipas, and interestingly, four of those matches were played on the clay courts. Even against De Mianaur, he has recorded a clean sweep with his most recent victory coming at the Barcelona Open. Although Musetti won a match against Alcaraz on the clay courts way back in 2022 (Hamburg), he trails the world number 3 by 1-4.

After that, Alcaraz’s toughest potential match at the 2025 Madrid Open will come against the three-time champion, Novak Djokovic in the semis. The Serb leads the H2H record against Alcaraz by 5-3. This year, Djokovic defeated Alcaraz in the QF of the AO by 4-6,6-4,6-3,6-4. After losing this match to the Serbian, Alcaraz said, “I mean, every time that we play against each other, I think it’s a guarantee. I mean, we push us to the limit, each other…I’ve done great things in tennis already, but playing against one of the best in history of our sport, these kind of matches help me a lot in the future to be better.“

If he wins that epic duel, then his probable opponents in the final could be either the defending champion Andrey Rublev or Alexander Zverev. Alcaraz has a 2-1 lead over the Russian, with Rublev’s only victory against the Spaniard coming in the QF of the 2024 Madrid Open. However, Zverev has a 6-5 edge over the Spaniard (but Alcaraz has a 2-0 record over the German in Madrid). In fact, Alcaraz won the title here in 2022 by defeating Zverev in the final by 6-3,6-1. Moreover, two other names (Holger Rune and Taylor Fritz) will also be in the frame as his probable opponents. 

Just a few days ago, Alexander Zverev reclaimed the number 2 spot from Alcaraz by clinching the Munich Open. Carlos Alcaraz‘s loss in the final of the Barcelona Open cost him a bit too much. What did he say after the match, though?

Carlos Alcaraz said he gave his all in the final match against Holger Rune

Alcaraz had won the Barcelona Open twice (2022,2023) in his career. Although he missed the chance to take part in this event last year due to an injury, looking at his incredible run this year, he was surely the favorite to win the title this time. But the Dane had other plans! 

“Losing is never easy, especially in a final and at the Godo,” said the Spaniard. “Despite how the match went, I have to give credit and congratulations to Holger. He played an exceptional, very organized match, knowing what he had to do at all times. I’ve forgiven certain situations that ultimately hurt me, but overall, it was a Godo final: I’m proud of having given everything, even if it’s a slightly bitter situation.”

Alcaraz was seen struggling a bit with his movement and even calling an MTO after the opening three games of the second set against Holger Rune. How serious is that injury? Will it impact his participation at the Madrid Open?

“The second set started off tough, with long rallies. There were two runs where I felt something in my right abductor or psoas muscle. If you feel discomfort, the alarm bells go off. It’s hard to stay focused on the game; you worry more about your physique and health, and I struggled to maintain my level. I think it’ll be two days of rest… We’re going to talk to my team, do tests, and I’m confident it won’t hurt me for Madrid.”

Like Barcelona, Alcaraz has won this title in Madrid two times (2022,2023). Last year, he was defeated by Andrey Rublev in the QF. Can he come up with a better performance this time and get closer to following the footsteps of his ‘idol’ Rafael Nadal, who has clinched the title five times?