Madrid Open 2024: Dominic Thiem vs Thanasi Kokkinakis; Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

Temperatures are soaring high in Madrid. The superstars of the tennis world are all set to step onto the court to take part in the 22nd edition of the Mutua Madrid Open. The tournament is set to commence from 23 April and will go on till 5 May. Who’ll conquer the Park Manzanares? The answer will be revealed in a few weeks, but before that let’s shift our focus to the second qualifiers in which former Austria’s, Dominic Thiem takes on Australia’s Thanasi Kokkinakis.

Dominic Thiem has been struggling with injuries and lack of form over the last few years. He would surely look forward to bringing back his glorious days in the 2024 season. While Thiem has faced some unexpected losses against some lower-ranked players this season, Thanasi Kokkinakis won’t mind bringing a few more upsets in the Austrian camp.

Dominic Thiem vs Thanasi Kokkinakis: Preview

Dominic Thiem had a poor start to the season in 2024. His deepest run into the tournaments this year has been till R16. Even in the last match, despite the victory the 30-year-old Austrian looked to be struggling a bit against the 128th ranked Brazilian tennis player Felipe Alves. Thiem won the match by 6-2,3-6,7-5, he aced a total of six aces in the match and committed only four double faults. His first serve win percentage was quite decent, having won 65% of it against the Brazilian. However, his second-serve win percentage was even better (70%).

Thiem managed to convert only five of his fourteen break points and won 11 of his service games against Felipe Alves. Dominic Thiem has some fond memories on the clay court surfaces in his career, will that give him an added advantage over a relatively less experienced campaigner? Talking about Thiem’s records in the 2024 season, the Austrian who poses a strong serve with a capability of reaching 145mph (233 km/hr) has only hit 30 aces throughout the season so far. He has committed 20 double faults in 2024.

His first serve win percentage throughout the season is 68% and that of the second serve is currently at 49% so far. Looking at the percentage of games won by the Austria tennis star in serves and returns, Thiem has won 76% of his service games but has managed to win only 18% of her return games. What are the numbers for his Australian opponent?

Thanasi Kokkinakis is currently ranked 17 places above Thiem. He has reached the QF of the Los Cabos Open and Challenger Phoenix, US tournament this year. Currently in red-hot form, Kokkinakis recently won the Sarasota Challenger tournament in the US before taking his flight to Madrid. In his previous match in the qualifiers for the Madrid Open, he defeated France’s Gregoire Barrere by 6-2,6-2.

In that match, the Australian tennis player fired six aces and committed just a single double fault. His first serve win percentage against Barrere was 74%, while it dropped to 50% on the second serve. Kokkinakis converted four of his seven breakpoints in that match and won a total of eight service games against the French.

Thanasi Kokkinakis loves to serve big. He has hit a staggering 117 aces so far this season and committed just 30 double faults. His first-serve win percentage this season is slightly better than Thiem’s (70%). But his record in the second serve win percentage for this year is the same as the Austrian (49%). Kokkinakis has won 79% of his service games and just 11% of his return games this season. So, serves are going to play a huge role in this match of big-servers!

Thiem vs Kokkinakis: Head-to-Head

They haven’t met each other earlier on the tour. However, Dominic Thiem has reached the finals of this tournament twice in his career(2017 and 2018) while Kokkinaki managed to reach the first round last year. So, Thiem has the experience on this surface while Kokkinakis has the form. This is surely going to be an intriguing contest to watch. But who is ahead in the predictions?

Prediction: Kokkinakis to win this battle against the former world number 3

Dominic Thiem has reached the finals of the French Open twice in his career. He has had some extraordinary results in the past on the clay courts against the clay court specialist. Thiem has defeated the ‘King of Clay‘ four times on clay. But in Madrid, the surfaces are a bit different as compared to other clay courts around the world. 

But on a sunny day, the balls relatively come a little faster after pitching on the drier surface. However, in overhead conditions, the ball tends to grip a bit and comes to the racquet much slower than it would on a good day. The notorious fickle nature of the turf here tends to sway with the change in weather. Here, the courts are much slower compared to the American clay courts. How does this affect both these players?

Dominic Thiem has some of the heaviest groundstrokes on the tour. He has the ability to hit big with both his forehand and single-handed backhand. While Kokkinakis loves to rely on his forehands and serves to get the results in his favor. Provided the weather conditions to be reasonably good on the match day, it’ll interesting to see which player utilizes the conditions better.

Thiem has a win-loss record of 2-4 this season, while the Australian has a win-loss record of 4-8 in 2024. Dominic Thiem is a proven campaigner with a vast experience on the clay courts but he has been a bit off-color over the past few years. So, Thanasi Kokkinakis’s incredible form over the past few weeks may give him an edge over the former no. 3.