“It’s incredible. I wasn’t expecting this,” said a jubilant Jack Draper after clinching his maiden ATP 1000 trophy last month. He beat Denmark’s Holger Rune to win the Indian Wells Masters. The victory was quite special as it propelled him into the top 10 for the first time. However, the World No.6 has lost the winning momentum recently. In the Miami and Monte Carlo Masters, he had to face early round exits. But it appears the 23-year-old has regained his form this week at the Madrid Open. Having reached the R16, he will now look to make a deep run while stepping on the court against American Tommy Paul on Wednesday. So who’s going to have the last laugh? Let’s try to find out.

Jack Draper v Tommy Paul: Preview

Jack Draper’s 2025 season has been mostly consistent. Down under, he reached the fourth round of the Australian Open before losing to Carlos Alcaraz. Then at the Qatar Open, he succeeded in entering the summit clash. Unfortunately, he couldn’t lift the trophy against Andrey Rublev. But he improved this performance soon, at the BNP Paribas Open last month. In the final, the Brit didn’t give Danish pro Rune many chances. He dominated him in straight sets with a score line of 6-2, 6-2.

However, Draper failed to make a deep run in the Miami Open. In the first round itself, he crashed out after losing to eventual winner Jakub Mensik. A similar fate continued at the Monte Carlo Masters as well. Draper lost the R16 match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. In Madrid, though, he’s managed to get back to winning ways. He began his campaign with a straight-set victory over Tallon Griekspoor. Next up, he got a direct entry in R16 after his R32 opponent, Italy’s Matteo Berrettini, retired due to an injury.

Now speaking of Tommy Paul, the American’s 2025 season has been stable if not outstanding. Back in January, he managed to reach the semis at the Adelaide International. Then, during the Happy Slam, Paul made it to the quarterfinals in Melbourne before losing to Alexander Zverev. In Dallas, too, he maintained his consistency, reaching the SF round. In the next three ATP tournaments, though, his form took a big dip. At the Mexican Open, Indian Wells Masters, and Miami Open, he couldn’t move past the R16.

Fortunately, the form returned in his last event, at the US Men’s Clay Court Championships. Paul succeeded in entering the semis before losing to compatriot and eventual winner Jenson Brooksby. Going into the Madrid Open, the American began his campaign with a straight-set win, in R64, over 18-year-old sensation João Fonseca. Then in the R32, he edged out Russia’s Karen Khachanov on Tuesday to enter the R16 phase.

Draper v Paul: Head-to-Head

Both players have met on five occasions across ATP events in their careers. Currently, Draper is leading the h2h tally 3-2 against Paul. When they faced each other the last time, it was in 2024. During the QF of the Queen’s Club Championships, Paul emerged as the winner.

• 2024 Queen’s Club Championships QF: Paul 6-3, 5-7, 6-4
• 2024 Mexican Open R32: Draper 6-0, 6-4
• 2024 Australian Open R64: Paul 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, 7-5
• 2024 Adelaide QF: Draper 6-1, 6-4
• 2023 Adelaide R16: Draper 6-4, 6-4

Prediction: Jack Draper to win in three sets

Jack Draper is having a solid edge over Tommy Paul in terms of singles stats this season. The Brit has won 16 of his 20 matches so far, having a win percentage of 80 compared to the American (17-7).

Now, coming onto event history, Draper’s not been able to leave a lasting impression at the Madrid Open. In his last two appearances (2022 and 2024), he was ousted in R32 and R64, respectively. On the other hand, Paul’s story is no different. In the previous three campaigns (2022, 2023, and 2024) on the clay surface, he’s failed to impress. He crashed out in R64, R64, and then R32.

But what about their playing styles? Well, Draper’s a right-hander but plays tennis with his left hand. He prefers to dominate from the baseline with his powerful serve and smooth movement around the net. In short, he’s good in terms of court coverage. Not to forget his dependable left-hand serve. Especially the sliced one, which helps him earn crucial points. Speaking of Paul, the American likes to take advantage of his forehand. Combine that with his impressive footwork from the baseline. Near the net, too, he’s quite good while having a volley in his arsenal. And don’t forget his solid serves as well.

Given the fact that the Brits’s already won an ATP title this season, alongside his domination in h2h stats, the Brit looks like the favorite in Wednesday’s match. While he may face a tough challenge from Paul, Jack Draper is expected to win the R16 encounter in three sets.