Madrid Open 2024: Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev; Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

The semifinal of the Madrid Open is here, and it will feature Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev as it holds their 9th clash. Fritz has shown a great hold on clay as he played till the final of the Bavarian International and has only dropped one set in Madrid. Rublev stepping into the semifinal in Madrid was unexpected, as the Russian player has not shown great form in the last few months.

The defending champion in Monte-Carlo lost in the opening round, with similar results following him in the Barcelona Open. However, his wins here have turned his image around.

Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev: Preview

Fritz beat Luciano Darderi, Sebastian Baez, Hubert Hurkacz, and Francisco Cerundolo on his way to the semifinal. He has hit 30 aces in total and 3 double faults. Against Cerundolo, he won 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, and won 83% of points on first serve while breaking the Argentine thrice. He gave away 1 break point. Despite letting his lead slip in the second set, he bounced back to close out the game in the third set.

Rublev ousted the two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 after beating Facundo Bagnis, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Tallon Griekspoor. Rublev has hit 23 aces with 7 double faults. Against Alcaraz, he won an astounding 80% of points on first serve. He took 3 out of 13 break points while only giving away 1 out of 8. He showed some trouble closing out Alcaraz on his serve but controlled the game under pressure.

Fritz vs Rublev: Head-to-Head

Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev have played against each other eight times on the ATP Tour. Fritz leads their rivalry 5-3, with their last match being held in 2023.

• 2018 Indian Wells Masters round of 64: Fritz 6-4, 7-6
• 2018 Next Gen ATP Final round-robin: Rublev 4-2, 1-4, 3-4, 4-3, 2-4
• 2021 Dubai Tennis Championships round of 16: Rublev 6-3, 6-1
• 2021 Paris Masters round of 32: Fritz 7-5, 7-6
• 2022 Indian Wells Masters semifinal: Fritz 7-5, 6-4 
• 2022 Cincinnati Open round of 16: 6-7, 6-2, 7-5
• 2023 Monte-Carlo Masters semifinal: Rublev 5-7, 6-1, 6-3
• 2023 Laver Cup round-robin: 6-2, 7-6

Rublev might have fewer victories over Fritz, but he has the only clay win in their matches. He has a minor advantage over the Americans in their head-to-head numbers.

Prediction: Rublev to reach his first Madrid Open final

Both have shown a smashing hold of the slowest tennis surface in the last week. However, Andrey Rublev will be the one to advance to the final after a close match. Rublev and Fritz managed to take advantage of their serves in Madrid, which means they will be focusing on returning big as well, where Rublev has the advantage. 

After his match with Cerundolo, Fritz talked about why he let the lead slip. After making mistakes in the first set, Cerundolo played better later. “The second set and third set, I feel he got a lot more solid. He was not giving me anything for free and it was really hard to hit through him and find balls to attack on. He was getting the backhand through the court,” Fritz said after his win.

This can be advantageous to Rublev, who has frequent outbursts on the court but controls his anger during his Alcaraz clash. “I think the key was I was completely calm the whole match. I did not say one word, even if I was losing. That was the key and I was able to serve even better near the end.” 

Aside from their current forms, Rublev has more wins on clay than Fritz, tipping the scales on his side. The two are set apart marginally in the semifinal. With similar feats in Madrid, Fritz has all the skills required to pull an upset. While small, the Russians have the advantage over the Americans and will be the ones to play in the finals.