Madrid Open 2024: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev; Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

The quarterfinal of the 2024 Madrid Open will feature a clash of titans as Carlos Alcaraz faces Andrey Rublev. Alcaraz is a two-time defending champion in Madrid and needs to face down the Russian player if he wants to get a shot at the final. The Spaniard stepped into the tournament after recovering from an injury but did not let it impede his progress.

Rublev, on the other hand, has struggled this season. Before Madrid, he faced three back-to-back first-round exits and a second-round exit. He turned his fate around in Madrid, but now faced a dangerous player in front of him. 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev: Preview

Alcaraz has defeated Alexander Shevchenko 6-2, 6-1, Thiago Seyboth Wild 6-3, 6-3 and Jan-Lennard Struff 6-3, 7-6, 7-6. In his matches, Alcaraz has managed to score six aces and 5 double faults. After landing 63% of first serves, he managed to take 59% points. He took 75% of points from second serves and gave Struff 49 receiving points while winning 37. Struff managed to break Alcaraz’s serve twice after 10 attempts and gave away 3 break points. 

Rublev beat Facundo Bagnis 6-1, 6-4, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-6, 6-4 and Tallon Griekspoor 6-2, 6-4. Rublev’s serve has fared well, as he hit 18 aces and 5 double faults in his matches. Against Griekspoor, Rublev managed an astounding 97% of points on the first serve and 44% on the second serve. He only gave away 7 receiving points, never giving the Dutch player a chance to break him. 

Alcaraz vs Rublev: Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev have played against each other once on the ATP Tour. Their only clash was held in the 2023 round-robin stage of the Nitto ATP Finals, where Alcaraz won in straight sets, 7-5, 6-2. The Spaniard showed his dominance over Rublev on indoor hard, but the speed on clay is much slower. Control will be a big weapon for the two here.

Prediction: Alcaraz will win their second clash

Andrey Rublev found his form after a troublesome time in the last two months. However, beating Carlos Alcaraz on Spanish clay is another task altogether. Since 2022, Alcaraz has stood undefeated on Spanish clay with a 24-0 record. Although he couldn’t play in Barcelona due to his injuries, he has shown he means business in Madrid. He does not have a preferred surface and has shown high adaptability to all types of opponents. 

Despite being the favorite, Rublev does have a chance of winning. As he came back after a wrist injury, the Spaniard was wary of hitting his most dangerous shot, the forehand. He also showed trouble taking points from his serving game. During his round-of-16 clash, Alcaraz had four match points in the third set at 40-0 but allowed Struff to break him.

Alcaraz talked about his worries after the clash, “It was pretty difficult from the first point until the last one. It was a great fight and it was difficult. It was difficult for me to deal with my emotions, to handle certain moments, difficult moments in the match. Serving for the match, it was really difficult for me after that 40/0 up, but really happy that at the end it didn’t affect me with my game, with my mentality.”

Rublev can take advantage of such situations, but Alcaraz will be careful not to let it happen again. Victory lies with Alcaraz, but Rublev has a fair chance as well.