Italian Open 2024: Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

The two Chileans, Nicolas Jarry and Alejandro Tabilo are having a wonderful outing in Rome. They are now the first Chilean duo to reach the SF of an ATP Tour event since 2006. Nicolas defeated the in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas in the QF of the 2024 Italian Open by 3-6,7-5,6-4 in 2 hours 38 minutes. He will now face the American tennis star, Tommy Paul in the semifinal. Even Paul has the chance to become the first American finalist in Rome since Andre Agassi in 2002. So, there is a lot at stake in this match. But who’s going to be that ultimate winner?

Tommy Paul entered into this tournament with just two clay court matches under his belt this season. While Nicolas Jarry entered into the Rome event with a four-match losing streak. But currently, he has got back to winning track and now he’s on a four-match winning streak in Rome. It will be interesting to see if he can make this five, with a victory in the SF.

Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry: Preview

Tommy Paul won a title at the Dallas Open earlier this year and then he reached one final and one semifinal in the rest of his tournaments this year. But after landing in Rome, he seems to be in a ‘giant-slaying’ mood! Paul defeated the defending champion, Daniil Medvedev in the R16 and then went on to overcome the Hurkacz (9) hurdle in the QF. With this latest victory over the Polish tennis star, Tommy Paul has now marked the first in his career that he has won two consecutive matches against Top 10 opponents.

Paul looked quite determined in that match. He hit three aces but committed five double faults in that match. His first serve win percentage was around 54% while it was just around 65% on the second serve. Paul converted seven of his thirteen breakpoints against Hurkacz. He has hit a total of 119 aces this season and committed just 38 double faults. If we take a closer look at his stats from this season, Paul has won 83% of his service games and 27% of his return games. How big are these numbers compared to the Santiago native?

Nicolas Jarry has reached one final and two quarterfinals in his previous tournaments before taking a flight to Rome. He performed a Herculean task defeating in-form Greek tennis star, Stefanos Tsitsipas in the QF. Jarry fired eight aces and committed just two double faults against Tsitsipas. His first-serve win percentage was 69% while it dropped a little on the second serve (64%). Jarry successfully converted three of his nine breakpoints against the number 8.

Reflecting a bit on his numbers from this season, Nicolas Jarry has so far managed to hit 163 aces and committed 42 double faults in total. He has won 83% of his service games but it dropped to 17% on his return games. Looks quite even at the moment right? Well, here’s the twist in the tale then!

Paul vs Jarry: Head-to-Head

Both of them have met each other only once in their careers. It was in the second round of the 2023 French Open. Nicolas Jarry defeated Tommy Paul by 3-6,6-1,6-4,7-5 in that epic encounter. In that match, Jarry had hit five aces and committed four double faults against Paul. While the American hit just three aces and made five double faults against the Chilean. Tommy Paul had a first-serve win percentage of 69% and it crept up to 72% on the second-serve. But Nicolas Jarry won 71% of her first serve and 55% of his second serve against Paul. 

Converting the half chance into winners will be crucial in this encounter. Talking about conversions, in their previous meeting Tommy Paul converted just two of his fifteen breakpoints while Nicolas Jarry successfully converted five of six breakpoints in that match. But who has the edge in this intriguing battle of two mighty challengers?

Prediction: Tommy Paul to win this match by three sets

Tommy Paul has the chance to get back to his career-high ranking of number 12 and replace Taylor Fritz as the number one ranked American by lifting the trophy in Rome. Paul has a win-loss record of 19-8 this season, while it’s 15-12 for Jarry. Clay court surface is nothing new for Tommy Paul, in fact, he grew up playing on the clay courts. The 27-year-old American tennis star even won the 2015 French Open boys’ singles title, so can’t rule out this American completely on clay courts.

Paul possesses a strong attacking forehand and he loves to dictate the game from the baseline. But he has solid footwork and can come up to the nets quickly. This can prove to be handy against the 6ft 7 inches Chilean on the red clay courts of Rome in the SF clash. Jarry on the other hand loves to hit big serves. So, this match is going to be an interesting contest to watch. However, Tommy Paul has a higher chance to overcome this SF challenge and carry forward his incredible run in this tournament.