Italian Open 2024: Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev; Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

Just a few weeks ago, Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev joined hands to partner in the doubles event in Madrid. And now, they are all set to crosswords in the R16 of the 2024 Italian Open. Who is going to win this enticing faceoff at the Grand Stand Arena on Tuesday (May 14)? Tommy Paul has already won a title this year. Daniil Medvedev came closer to clinching a title multiple times this year, but he’s still trophyless this season. The former world number one has played two finals, two semifinals and one quarterfinal so far this year. Can he reach yet another QF in Rome?

Well, Daniil Medvedev won a title here in the 2023 season. So, he surely knows how to make a deep run into this event. He has been winning titles every year since 2018, but the biggest concern for Medvedev in Rome would be his inability to win the same tournament twice. It’ll be interesting to see if this year becomes an exception or will Tommy Paul have the last laugh?

Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev: Preview

This will be Tommy Paul’s second clay-court tournament this year. He couldn’t do much in Madrid, so Paul will be looking forward to making his presence felt in Rome. And he has already got off to a winning start at the 2024 Italian Open. He took two sets to defeat his previous two opponents in this tournament. In the last match, Tommy Paul defeated Germany’s Dominik Koepfer by 6-4,6-3. He hit two aces and committed three double faults in that match.

Paul’s first serve win percentage was around 79% in that match, but it dropped a little to 65% on the second serve. He managed to convert just four of sixteen breakpoints in that match. The American tennis star needs to improve his numbers further in order to stand a chance against the defending champion. Talking about numbers, Tommy Paul has hit a staggering 119 aces and committed just 38 double faults so far this season. He has won 83% of his service games and 27% of his return games. Paul needs to grab his chances with both hands against Medvedev right from the start of the game.

Daniil Medvedev was forced to retire in the middle of the QF match in his last tournament in Madrid. However, he has made a decent comeback by winning his previous two matches in Rome. But he looked still far away from his free-flowing game. Medvedev had to play three sets to defeat the Serbian youngster, Hamad Medjedovic in his previous match. Although he fired seven aces against the Serbian in that match, Medvedev committed ten double faults. This will be a big concern for him heading into this clash against the American.

He managed to win 69% of his first serve and 53% of his second serve against Medjedovic. However, Daniil Medvedev successfully converted four out of his right breakpoints. If we look at his numbers from this season, Medvedev has hit a total of 160 aces and committed 116 double faults so far. He has won 80% of his service games compared to just 28% of his return games this year. But who has the edge in their head-to-heads?

Paul vs Medvedev: Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul has faced Daniil Medvedev on three occasions previously in his career. Unfortunately for the American, he had to face defeat on all three occasions. Their first meeting was at the 2021 French Open when Medvedev defeated him by a four-set thriller. Then two years later they yet again met each other at the 2023 China Open. Even this time, the Russian had the last laugh, but in two sets! However, their recent meeting was in this year’s Indian Wells Masters. Daniil Medvedev defeated Tommy Paul by 1-6,7-6(3),6-2.

Looking at the numbers from that match, Paul hit five aces and committed three double faults. While Medvedev hit only two aces and committed three double faults. The American has a first-serve win percentage of 64% compared to just 48% on the second-serve. It was just 59% and 44% respectively for the Russian. Moreover, Tommy Paul converted five of his eleven breakpoints while Daniil Medvedev managed to convert five of ten breakpoints successfully. Who will have the upper hand in this exciting contest in Rome?

Prediction: Medvedev to win this match by a close margin

Looking at the experience of performing on the bigger stages of the game, Daniil Medvedev is way ahead of Tommy Paul. But Paul grew up playing on clay courts in Greenville, NC. He even won the 2015 French Open boys’ singles title. So, ruling out Tommy Paul completely won’t be a too wise thing to do on this surface. Paul is currently ranked 16 in the world and has a win-loss record of 15-7. While the world number 4, has a win-loss record of 22-6 this season so far.

It will be Tommy Paul’s strong attacking game style versus Daniil Medvedev’s very defensive style of play. Paul would love to use his lethal forehands and solid footwork to put the Russian on the back foot in this match. While Medvedev’s counter-punching abilities will be put to the test on Tuesday. Daniil Medvedev is known for his strong return of serve and possesses one of the best backhands on the tour. Looking at their consistency in the last few tournaments, it seems like Medvedev is yet again going to make a deep run into this tournament.