Italian Open 2024: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex De Minaur; Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

The Colosseum of Foro Italico is all set to host a battle between the ‘Spartan Warrior’ and the ‘Demon’ in just a few hours from now. Both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex de Minaur have been in red-hot form this year. They have already clinched a title each in this season. Tsitsipas and Alex de Minaur have crossed paths several times on the Tour in their careers so far. But who will this exciting contest at the R16 of the 2024 Italian Open?

Apart from winning a title in Monte Carlo, Stefanos Tsitsipas has reached one semifinal, one quarterfinal and a final in his previous tournaments this year. Alex de Minaur won a title this year at the Mexican Open and reached the final in Rotterdam and QF in Monte Carlo. They have showcased a fair bit of consistency this year and it’ll be interesting to see who has the last laugh in Rome this time around.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex de Minaur: Preview

The Greek tennis star started his Italian Open campaign on a winning note. He recently grabbed his 23rd win of the year by defeating Cameron Norrie by 6-2,7-6(1) in just 1 hour and 33 minutes. If we look at his numbers from that match, Stefanos Tsitsipas hit five aces and committed two double faults in the entire match. His first-serve win percentage was 81%, while his second-serve win percentage was around 65%. Tsitsipas successfully converted three of his nine breakpoints against Norrie. He has looked a completely different player on clay this season.

Looking at his numbers from this season, Stefanos Tsitsipas has hit a total of 176 aces and 82 double faults this season. He has won 85% of his service games compared to just 26% of his return games. Just like Tsitsipas, even Alex de Minaur has quite impressive numbers this season.

The 25-year-old Aussie tennis star will enter into this intriguing contest after his recent victory over Canada’s Félix Auger-Aliassime in the R32. Alex de Minaur defeated the Canadian by 6(2)-7,6-4,6-4 in his previous match. In that match, de Minaur hit only a single ace and committed just one double fault. His first-serve win percentage was 70% while it was around 63% on the second-serve. Alex de Minaur converted four of his twelve breakpoints in that match. 

Alex De Minaur is currently ranked 11th in the men’s singles ranking. If we look at his numbers and current form don’t be surprised if he breaks into the Top 10 in a few weeks from now. He has hit a total of 141 aces and committed 65 double faults this season so far. Alex de Minaur has won 83% of his service games and just 31% of his return games this year. Looking at these numbers, fans can get an idea about how close this battle is going to be on Tuesday.

Tsitsipas vs De Minaur: Head-to-Head

Well, if we look at their previous meetings, surprisingly it has been a one-sided contest so far with Tsitsipas leading 10-1 in the H2H record. If we consider their previous meetings on the bigger stages of the game, Stefanos Tsitsipas earned his first victory over the Australian in Tokyo about six years ago. After that, it has been all the ‘Tsitsipas Show’ in their next nine encounters. A sheer dominance over the ‘Demon’!

However, Alex de Minaur came back with a victory in their recent meetings in the QF of the Mexican Open. He defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas by 1-6,6-3,6-3 at the Estadio Arena GNP Seguros to make way into the semis in Acapulco. Stefanos Tsitsipas hit five aces but committed eight double faults in that match. On the other hand, Alex de Minaur managed to hit only two aces and committed a single double fault in the entire match.

Alex de Minaur had the edge on win percentage on the first serve, while Stefanos Tsitsipas had a higher percentage when it came to the second serve. The Australian converted six of his twelve breakpoints in that match. However, the Greek tennis star managed to convert five of his seven breakpoints. They had won seven of their service games each. Will serve going to be a deciding factor in this game?

Prediction: Tsitsipas to win in three sets

Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled to return serves against players with a strong kick serve on the backhand. Alex de Minaur’s biggest weak point has been his serve. He has to put a check on the high number of double fault counts to put himself in a favorable position against the number 8. Stefanos Tsitsipas is an aggressive baseliner who is quite capable of generating powerful groundstroke winners. Tsitsipas biggest weapon is his favorite one-handed backhand shot. But reducing the number of unforced errors in his game will be something he will be looking at against the Aussie.

Alex de Minaur’s biggest strength has been his speed and agility on the court. His forehand is significantly better than his backhand. But is it enough to topple the player who currently has a 12-2 record on clay this season? No, looking at the current form and the way Tsitsipas has performed on dirt this year, he seems to be clearly ahead in this contest. But the ‘Demon’ will give a tough fight in this match.