Italian Open 2024: Alexander Zverev vs Nicolas Jarry; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

After a series of action-packed matches at the 2024 Italian Open, we’ve finally arrived at Super Sunday. The world’s number five tennis player, Alexander Zverev takes on the challenger from Chile, Nicolas Jarry in this epic battle in Rome. How many of you have predicted them to be in the finals at the start of the tournament? Well, that’s the beauty of this game. Anything is possible on a given day. 

Talking about this day, well May 19th can become a historic day in the career of both the tennis stars. Alexander Zverev has now already matched Boris Becker’s record of 11 Masters finals and now he’ll keen to land his sixth Masters 1000 title of his career with a victory in Rome. While Nicolas Jarry too has a lot for grabs in this epic grand finale. He became the first Chilean player to reach a final at this level since Fernando Gonzalez’s heroics at the 2007 Italian Open. Can Jarry carry forward his winning run and become the second Chilean champion in the Masters 1000 history?

Alexander Zverev vs Nicolas Jarry: Preview

Alexander Zverev has been in tremendous form this season, but has he won any title this season? Well, the 27-year-old German tennis star hasn’t yet won a title this year but he has reached three SFs and two QFs this year before this tournament. In the 2024 Italian Open, he broke his four-match losing streak in the tour semifinals with a victory against another Chilean, Alejandro Tabilo. He defeated Tabilo by 1-6,7-6(4),6-2, and his numbers from that match were quite impressive.

Zverev hit a total of ten aces in that match and committed five double faults against Alejandro Tabilo. He won 80% of his first serve and 45% of his second serve in the SF clash. Alexander Zverev broke just two of his six breakpoints and won eleven of his service games against the Chilean. Looking at his overall numbers for this season, Zverev has hit a staggering 246 aces and committed just 40 double faults so far this year. Interestingly, he has won 90% of his service games but just managed to win only 19% of his return games.

The German could rise up to number four with a win in the final. But Nicolas Jarry will be there to make sure he doesn’t get a free run in the finals in Rome. This is in fact, Jarry’s second final this season and he has already reached the QF of his previous two tournaments this year. So, the Chilean has also been in some good form this year. He defeated America’s Tommy Paul in the SF clash by 6-3,6(3)-7,6-3 in 2 hours 43 minutes. Nicolas Jarry loves his serve and he hit thirteen aces in that match but committed just two double faults.

His first serve win percentage was around 67%, while it dropped to 55% on the second serve. Jarry converted three out of his six breakpoints against Paul and won fifteen of his service games against the American. Nicolas Jarry has hit 163 aces this season and committed a total of 42 double faults so far. He has won 83% of his service games and just 17% of return games this year. How well have both of these players performed in their previous encounters?

Zverev vs Jarry: Head-to-Head

It’s the battle of 6ft 7 inches Chilean versus the 6 ft 6 inches German! And talking about battles, currently, Alexander Zverev leads the H2H with a 4-2 margin over Nicolas Jarry. They first met at the 2019 Barcelona Open where Jarry defeated Zverev by 3-6,7-5,7-6(5). However, Zverev made a comeback at the finals in Geneva and defeated the Chilean in yet another three-set thriller. After that, both the tennis stars met each other on three other occasions on the Tour. But it was Alexander Zverev who had the last laugh in their latest meeting.

Their latest meeting was at the QF of the 2023 China Open. In that match, Zverev defeated Jarry by 6-1,6 (5)-7,6-3. If we look at the numbers from that match, Zverev fired thirteen aces and committed just a single double fault in the entire match. At the same time, Jarry hit eight aces without committing even a single double fault in that epic contest. The German’s first serve win percentage was 77% but it dropped to 53% on the second serve. For the Chilean, it was 72% on the first serve and just 48% on the second serve.

However, Zverev converted three out of his four break points in that match. But Jarry failed to convert his only breakpoint against the German tennis star. But who has the edge in the finals?

Prediction: Zverev to win by three sets

Before the start of the match, both the tennis stars heaped praise on each other’s game. Nicolas Jarry said, “He’s a very good player. He already won here (in 2017). He’s a tough, tough guy to beat. Amazing backhand, good serve. He’s playing very good tennis right now.” While Zverev said, “I think Nicolas is one of the most aggressive players we have on the tour. Obviously huge serve, huge forehand. Tries to hit big from both sides of the court.” Alexander Zverev is very much impressed with Jarry’s game in this tournament.

Zverev currently has a win-loss record of 27-10 this season, while it’s 16-12 for Jarry. Nicolas Jarry needs to carry forward his aggressive approach against the Top 5 players. Dictating the game right from the word go will be the key in this match. Serves are going to play a major in deciding the fortune of this game on Sunday. Zverev can generate a lot of power with his backhand and forehand. Reducing the number of double fault counts will be something the German must look at in the finals. However, looking at the overall form and experience of playing big games, Alexander Zverev seems to be coming out of this contest with flying colors on Sunday!