Italian Open 2024: Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian Baez: Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

The Italian Open men’s singles has stepped into the round of 16. Hubert Hurkacz and Sebastian Baez will face each other in hopes of improving their run in the tournament. The clay swing has not been kind to Baez as he could not win a match in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona and only achieved one win in Madrid.

Hurkacz, on the other hand, won the Estoril Open and won two matches in the Monte-Carlo Masters and the Madrid Open. He aims to go further than two wins in the tournament, along with Baez, who is looking to turn the clay in his favor.

Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian Baez: Preview

Hurkacz beat Rafael Nadal 6-1, 6-3 and Tomás Martín Etcheverry 7-6, 6-2. The Polish player hit an astounding 20 aces in both matches, with 1 double fault. He averaged 81% of points on first serve and 60% of points on second serve. Rafa had 7 chances to break Hurkacz’s serve, and Etcheverry had 3, but they could not take a breakpoint from him. Hurkacz broke Rafa 4 times and Etcheverry twice. However, he fumbled return points as he could only take 24 out of 66 against the Argentinian.

Sebastian Baez beat Dusan Lajović 7-6, 7-6 and Holger Rune 2-6, 6-2, 6-3. Baez hit 1 ace and 5 double faults against both opponents. He averages 63% of points on first serves and 59% on second serves. He took 6 out of 15 break points from Lajović and 5 out of 6 break points from Rune. Rune broke Baez thrice, and Lajović broke him 6 times. He has shown a jagged control when receiving against Rune, as he took 35 receiving points out of 75.

Hurkacz vs Baez: Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz and Sebastian Baez have not played against each other on the ATP Tour yet. Their clash in Italy will be a first ever as they attempt to enter the quarterfinal of the Italian Open for the first time in their careers. Both have shown great effort to overcome better players on clay, and their match will certainly be a spectacle to witness. 

Prediction: Hurkacz to take victory against the Argentine

Hubert Hurkacz has been outstanding this clay season. It took Taylor Fritz and Casper Ruud to take him down in the previous tournaments, but he found victory against Rafael Nadal in the Italian Open. While Sebastian Baez is also playing great, Hurkacz is set to take the win here, and it might come in straight sets. Hurkacz’s serves in Italy have demolished both of his opponents and will take down his next opponent as well.

His forehand is especially outstanding; it helped him hit 47 winners and push his opponents to commit errors. Baez has shown abilities to complete comebacks and push his opponents in the tie-break, which can cause an upset against the Pole. However, as it stands, Hurkacz will have his cake and eat it, too and will reach the quarterfinal in Rome for the first time in his career.