Forget everything you know about Jannik Sinner. What happens if he makes friends with the acrylic hardcourts of the US Open? Chances are, that he might push Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz out of the New York Slam. While most project the Serbian superstar, who has amassed 24 GS titles and a career Golden Slam, or young Alcaraz, the unstoppable hitting machine who has turned the ATP Tour upside down to dominate the Slam – the situation has now changed. Bear with me, Sinner is producing straight nitro after making a comeback from his injury hiatus.

Let me set the record straight, the Italian is no underdog. The World No. 1 has abundantly proved himself on the circuit and with his fervent indulgence towards making a definitive statement, he set the Cincinnati Masters ablaze. The tennis world was skeptical about his output after he endured a nasty hip injury earlier this year at the Madrid Open. And let’s not kid ourselves. Age factor aside, we’ve seen this happen to the best athletes produced by the sport. Even Rafael Nadal couldn’t escape its clutches – a nightmare he is still trying to get past. But, Sinner has proved otherwise.

The young talent has delivered a string of impressive performances at Cincy despite injury concerns, something even Alcaraz failed to do this season with none. The Spaniard suffered a big blow at the hardcourt event after he was handed a shock second-round defeat at the hands of Gael Monfils. In a moment of weakness, having entered his Rihanna stage, ‘the good boy turned bad’ smashed his rackets to bits, frustrated with the high-paced courts of Cincy.

While there is absolutely no doubt about his laudable on-court skills, Sinner’s performance can likely put pressure on both the Serb and Alcaraz at the hardcourt Slam. For those unaware, Nole skipped out on Cincy this year after indulging in a tiring two-week contest at the Paris Olympics, wherein he bagged a gold medal by defeating Alcaraz.

Cincinnati Masters stats dictate Jannik Sinner as clear favorite for the US Open

Last year, Sinner was unable to dig deep at the ATP 1000 Masters event. Having concluded his campaign prematurely, the Italian was sent packing empty-handed. However, to much irony, Sinner who claims to be a shadow of his former self owing to his ongoing rehabilitation, has scripted lopsided results this season.

Sinner breezed past formidable challenges from in-form players and later, engaged in a grueling three-set semifinal showdown with Alexander Zverev. That match, went a long way to showcase his resilience and the World No. 1’s ability to keep up a fighting spirit despite displaying signs of discomfort in his hip during the match. Merely a day after that tiring contest, the Italian took on Frances Tiafoe in the title decider. And again, he did not disappoint. He lifted the Cincy trophy and with it, pocketed his fifth overall trophy of the year.

When assessing his stats and comparing them with what he showcased at the hardcourt event in the 2023 edition, there’s a notable spike in his performance, across all boards. The Italian upped his wins in first serves, from 73% to 85%. There was also a reduction in his unforced errors, toning down the stats from 18 to 13 this year.

Moreover, in contrast to the Serb’s last year’s performance in Cincy and Alcaraz’s display this week, Sinner has successfully created a gap with them in every major aspect. Now, the question that needs answering. Why does he stand a better chance at finding glory at Flushing Meadows over the formidable likes of Nole and Alcaraz? The answer is rather straightforward.

Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz can stumble upon a bad beat in New York

It’s safe to say that Djokovic’s Olympic glory was just a one-way ticket to victory this season. Other than achieving this elusive feat, the Serb has nothing to show for the 2024 season. He hasn’t won a single Grand Slam and lost to Alcaraz for a second consecutive time at Wimbledon. While his impressive form in Paris did wonders for him, it’s doubtful that he can retain the same energy in New York owing to the lack of incentive prompting him to capture the Slam.

Alcaraz, on the other hand, is seemingly thumped with his Olympic defeat. He hasn’t been able to make a full recovery from his loss, which can further cause a mental blockage for the Spaniard. The idea of these two players winning the Flushing Meadows title only prevails if they task themselves to be fully committed. And right now, the duo seems astray.

In summary, it will be imprudent to outrightly name Sinner as the US Open champion just yet. After all, the dynamics can change at any minute. But to answer your question, yes, Sinner indeed enjoys having an upper hand over both Nole and Alcaraz at the moment. If he continues to deliver and rectifies his physical limitations, chances are he can upset the duo in the event’s later stages, leaving their hopes for revenge in a Grand Slam till the 2025 season.