Indian Wells 2024: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul, Preview, Prediction and Head-to-Head

The ‘Octopus‘ is all set to spread his tentacles over the ‘American hopes‘ in the SF of the BNP Paribas Open, in just a few hours from now. Daniil Medvedev had a solid start this year, winning 13 of his last 15 matches this season. Tommy Paul made a slow start this season but has gradually picked up his pace before heading into the semifinal on his home soil.

The local crowd will surely make their presence felt and try to boost Paul’s chances of getting over the line. But Daniil Medvedev is a fierce competitor who has proven himself multiple times on the bigger stages of the game. Do you think the experience of this hard court specialist from Russia will prove to be the deciding factor in this intriguing contest?

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul: Preview

Medvedev and Paul will square off for the 3rd time in their career. Both have put in some really commendable performances at the tournament so far. While Medvedev was clearly one of the favorites right from the start of Indian Wells, Tommy Paul came out of nowhere as the real dark horse in the tournament.

If we look at their overall performance this year, Medvedev reached the finals at the 2024 Australian Open but was eventually defeated by Jannik Sinner in a five-set-thriller. He reached the SF in the Dubai Tennis Championships before heading towards the ‘Sunshine State.‘

The Octopus recently defeated the Danish star, Holger Rune by 7-5,6-4 in the QF. Can he carry forward this momentum in his next match and make it to the finals for the second consecutive time in this tournament?

Tommy Paul, on the other hand, started his campaign this year at the Adelaide International. He reached the QF over there before heading to Melbourne for the AO, where he faced a third-round exit to Serbia’s Miomir Kecmanović in a five-set contest. After that, he clinched a title at the Dallas Open and made it to the finals in the Delray Beach Open.

However, he entered the Indian Wells after suffering a shocking early exit from the Mexican Open. But quickly came back to winning ways in the BNP Paribas Open. He defeated Casper Ruud in his previous match by 6-2,1-6,6-3. Tighten your set belts as we head to a detailed analysis of this high-quality contest between the two in-form players.

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul: Head-to-Head

The ‘Octopus’ currently has an edge over the American in the H2H with a 2-0 margin. They had last met the R32 in the 2023 China Open, where Medvedev defeated Paul by 6-2,6-1. The 28-year-old Russian star has dropped only one set so far at the Indian Wells. About statistics, Paul has played 26.1 games per match in his 63 matches over the last 12 months across all court surfaces. He has played 42 matches on hard courts over the past year and 25.2 games per match.

While Daniil Medvedev averages 26.6 games per match in his last 71 matches over the past year, winning 55.5% of the game. He has played 48 matches on hard courts over the last 12 months and has averaged 26.5 games per match and 10.1 games per set winning 55.7% of the games. Both Medvedev and Paul have contested in 6 sets against each other with the Russian winning 5 of them.

Prediction: Medvedev to win in two sets

Despite being known to be a part of some of the marathon matches in the history of the game, the hard-court specialist looks like a favorite in this game. But why? Out of 50 games played between them, Daniil Medvedev has won 33 out of them. Medvedev has won 13 of his 15 matches this season, whereas Paul has won 14 of his last 18 matches. Who has the upper hand in this contest?

Daniil Medvedev has a career-winning percentage of 76.11% on the hard court(239-75). While Tommy Paul has a record of 64.31% (209-116). So if we look at these statistics, the Russian looks to be the clear favorite to win this contest. They are scheduled to play on 17th March, Saturday at Stadium 1.

READ MORE: Daniil Medvedev’s Wild Response to Holger Rune’s Trademark Gesture Leaves Serena Williams’ Ex-Coach in Splits