Indian Wells 2024: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner, Preview, Prediction and Head-to-Head

Come Monday, who will be the World No.2 in the PIF ATP Rankings? That’s what Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will fight for in their semifinal clash at the Indian Wells Masters. In what is shaping up to be a rivalry tennis fans will enjoy for years to come, the two youngsters showed camaraderie by practicing together before the match. But once they’re on the court, there’s no doubt both will hope to continue their respective unbeaten runs.

Currently on a 19-match winning streak, Sinner became the youngest male player in the Open Era to start a season with a 16-0 record. As for Alcaraz, the Spaniard is on a 10-match winning streak in Indian Wells, having won the title in 2023 after beating Daniil Medvedev, 6-3,6-2 in the finals. That being said, every streak is meant to be broken. But who’ll be the first to relinquish their streak in this clash of the World No. 2 and 3?

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner: Preview

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are all set to take part in a blockbuster semifinal clash in just a few hours at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. The Spaniard has played some extraordinary tennis in this tournament, and his lethal forehand has been the talk of the week, along with his court coverage and the variations he puts on the table. But his astonishing reflexes stood above all in the last match against Alexander Zverev surrounding that ‘BEE-ZARRE’ incident. 

Despite the bee interruption in the first set, Alcaraz didn’t look too troubled by his German opponent as he avenged his recent Australian Open QF loss, defeating Zverev comfortably, 6-3,6-1. On the way to the semifinals, he overcame Matteo Arnaldi in the round of 64 in three sets (6-7, 6-0, 6-1), followed by straight-set wins against Felix Auger-Aliassime (6-2, 6-3) and Fábián Marozsán (6-3, 6-3). The upcoming match will be Alcaraz’s second SF appearance this season, having reached the semis of the Argentina Open.

Meanwhile, Jannik Sinner looks absolutely unstoppable at the moment and hasn’t lost a single set in this tournament this year. No one has been able to defeat the Italian in the last four months. On the way to the semifinals, he defeated Thanasi Kokkinakis (6-3, 6-0), Jan-Lennard Struff (6-3, 6-4), Ben Shelton (7-6, 6-1), and Jiri Lehecka (6-3, 6-3). Considering this, could the Spaniard change the equation?

Well, it’ll be a really tough ask, especially with Jannik Sinner heading into this tournament with two title triumphs, including his first Grand Slam triumph in the Australian Open. Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, has claimed victory in 4 out of the 5 ATP 1000-level event finals he has reached. That being said, it’s shaping up to be a cracker of a match. So, how have they stacked up against each other in the past?

Alcaraz vs Sinner: Head-to-Head

Jannik Sinner currently leads the H2H with a 4-3 margin. The Italian defeated the Spaniard in straight sets in their last meeting at the 2023 China Open. However, this clash is a repeat of last year’s semifinals at Indian Wells. Carlos Alcaraz had the last laugh that time, defeating Sinner 7-6(4),6-3 to book his spot in the finals. But talking about the most thrilling match between them, it’d surely be the QF faceoff at the 2022 US Open, where it took 5 sets and a grueling 5-hour 15 minutes to decide the ultimate winner – Alcaraz.

In their four other meetings, Sinner has come out on top in three of them. However, only two of them were on hard courts, with both winning one match each. Alcaraz took home a straight-set 7-6, 7-5 victory at the 2021 Paris Masters, and Sinner won their three-set encounter at the 2023 Miami Masters, 6-7, 6-4, 6-2. As the semifinal comes ever closer, there’s no doubt this will be an intriguing contest. 

In the battle for the World No.2 spot, Sinner will be looking to continue his journey to his first title at Indian Wells. And as for Alcaraz, he’d hope to make it two consecutive titles. So, who’ll come out on top?

Prediction: Sinner will achieve a career-high ranking on Monday

Carlos Alcaraz has a winning percentage of 79.7% (145-37) on hard courts. Meanwhile, Jannik Sinner has 72% (136-53) on the same surface. However, when it comes to service game-winning percentage, the Italian has the lead here with an impressive 94% over 86% of the Spaniard. Sinner even has a higher success rate in converting break point opportunities than Alcaraz.

The 22-year-old is currently 29-1 in his last 30 matches, with 16 wins this season coming on hard courts. He’ll have the chance to become the World No.2 for the first time, surpassing his record as the highest-ranked Italian in ATP rankings history since 1973. But Alcaraz had already tested the setback of dropping down from the top spot to a place below. He would be gutted if he gets dropped down further.

As for the conditions in Indian Wells, the slow courts are more suited to the Spaniard’s heavy topspin groundstrokes, and they tend to bring out a lot of creativity in him. However, the courts do make for a good surface for Sinner’s drop shots. Despite winning the title here in 2023, Alcaraz has had a tougher time getting to this stage of the tournament than Sinner. With the psychological H2H advantage, coupled with his momentum and record in the 2023 edition, the Italian could win the pair’s eighth encounter.

But what do you think? Who’s your pick for the final?

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