French Open (2024): Rafael Nadal vs Alexander Zverev: Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

“I would love to play him one more time. I would love to play him in a final or semifinal, in a big match again.” Well, be careful what you wish for Sascha. It seems like the Gods have heard Alexander Zverev’s pre-Rome words and granted his wish partially. The German will play Rafael Nadal again, only a bit too early.

Tournament director Amelie Mauresmo said, “This is good news for neither of them.” Neutrals may not share that sentiment, as they will be ecstatic at the prospect of witnessing a repeat of the abruptly and unfortunately concluded 193-minute classic from the semi-finals in 2022. If their 2024 French Open encounter is anywhere near that, it will be electrifying in Paris.

Given the current form, it seems highly unlikely we would get to witness something on the same level as the match on June 3, 2022. Rafael Nadal has played just 12 Grand Slam matches after getting pushed to the limit on his 36th birthday; the last came back in January 2023. After sitting out for almost the entire 2023 season, the Spaniard has played four tournaments this year in his quest to regain match fitness. A clear observation is that the intensity has been missing. Despite Daniil Medvedev praising Nadal’s practice set ahead of the 2024 French Open, an actual five-setter against a player with matches under his belt may be too much to ask of the aging great.

Tough first-round opponents are not a new thing for Rafael Nadal. He went 2-1 down against John Isner in 2011, before prevailing in the decider. So what’s different this time? Well, time has caught up with perhaps the sport’s greatest fighter. The 37-year-old is 13 years older and a few days shy of a 38th candle on his cake. Does that factor in for a Nadal match at a venue where he seems to find an extra gear? No. The Spaniard will persevere, feed off the 15,000-strong Court Philippe-Chatrier, and make Alexander Zverev earn every point. If he does go down, (‘Rafans’ hope) it will not be a meek surrender.

Rafael Nadal vs Alexander Zverev: Madrid Open (Round 1) Preview

Alexander Zverev will head into the French Open on the back of a 2024 clay record of 10-3 and a title at Foro Italico. Detractors may point to the fact that he did not encounter a top 10 player in Rome, but all one can do is build momentum by beating whoever stands before them. The German did just that, dropping only one set (against Alejandro Tabilo) in 6 matches. Before Italy, though, Zverev did not give an impression of being a French Open favorite. He suffered three defeats, two of which came against players outside the top 20. It is important to note that all three names have enjoyed success on clay and prefer playing on the surface.

• Madrid Open: lost to Francisco Cerundolo 6-3, 6-4
• Munich Open: lost to Cristian Garin 6-4, 6-4
• Monte Carlo Masters: lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-5, 7-6 (7-3)

Rafael Nadal on clay, especially in Paris, is a whole different ball game altogether, with just two men having overcome him since 2005.

Novak Djokovic is a rare someone who out-rallied Rafael Nadal in a best-of-five, but Robin Soderling outlined a perfect game plan- Hit the ball hard. Alexander Zverev, with his aggressive game, can do just that in his quest for winners. So what’s stopping us from crowning the World No. 4 as Nadal’s third conqueror in Paris? The fact that it is the French Open, where trying to outhit and out-rally the 14-time French Open champion over 5 sets, is easier said than done.

Rafael Nadal’s troubles against players who hit the ball early and hard have hindered him on grass and hard courts. This has not been the case at Roland Garros as many ATP stars have tried first-strike tennis and have been unsuccessful. Names like Stanislas Wawrinka (2017 final), Dominic Thiem (2018 and 2019 final), and Juan Martín del Potro (2018 semi-final) come to mind. Even Roger Federer 2.0 could not halt ‘The King of Clay’ in the 2019 semi-final and Robin Soderling could not replicate his 2009 display in the 2010 final. For all the talk about the 2022 Zverev match, what if Nadal had upped his game in the second tiebreaker and run away with a quick third set?

The aforementioned matches came against a younger Nadal who entered the French Open on the back of at least one clay court title and plenty of matches. It is not the case this time, as Nadal’s early exits in Barcelona, Madrid, and Rome will have restricted him to the practice courts. The legend’s practice sessions see him exhibit match-level intensity, but there is just something missing if it isn’t against a real opponent with 10,000+ fans in attendance and millions watching worldwide. Nothing beats actual matches and the 37-year-old has just 11 under his belt this year; 8 on clay.

Alexander Zverev has played more singles matches on clay than Nadal has done in the entire season. The 27-year-old German’s 13 matches on the dirt have seen him face a variety of match situations. This experience would have allowed the World. No. 4 and his team to refine their game plans for the French Open. Bear in mind that all the practice possible will not give Zverev a Nadalesque feel. That’s not to say the one-time Grand Slam finalist does not know what to expect.

Rafael Nadal vs Alexander Zverev: Head-to-Head

Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev are familiar foes, having collided 10 times; 6 times on outdoor clay courts. The Spaniard leads 7-3 overall, and 5-1 on the red dirt.

• 2022 French Open (Semi-final): Nadal won 7-6 (10/8), 6-6*
• 2021 Italian Open (Quarter-final): Nadal won 6-3, 6-4
• 2021 Madrid Open (Quarter-final): Zverev won 6-4, 6-4
• 2018 Rome Masters (Final): Nadal won 6-1, 1-6, 6-3
• 2018 Davis Cup (Quarter-final): Nadal won 6-1, 6-4, 6-4
• 2017 Monte Carlo Masters (Third round): Nadal won 6-1, 6-1

The 22-time Grand Slam champion has an unblemished record over the German at the Majors. Five years before their titanic semifinal clash, a teenaged Zverev had a 1-2 lead over Nadal, before running out of steam in the third round of the Australian Open.

This is a sign that Alexander Zverev has the game and the ability to trouble Rafael Nadal at the Majors. He did so to a Nadal in better physical shape and would relish the chance at being able to be the 37-year-old’s final French Open opponent. Could ‘The King of Clay’ suffer his earliest French Open exit? 

Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Nadal

The French Open is perhaps the most emotional stop on the Rafa Nadal farewell tour. He has won 15.21% of his 92 career singles titles here and will want to leave on a high. Even Nadal purists would agree that receiving the Coupe des Mousquetaires for a 15th time would be a stretch, but an R1 exit would be a shocker. Should it happen, it will not be the great’s first R128 exit.

Rafael Nadal has had two first-round exits in Grand Slams. He lost to Steve Darcis [7-6 (7/4), 7-6 (10/8), 6-4] at Wimbledon in 2013, and Fernando Verdasco [6-7 (6/8), 6-4, 6-3, 6-7 (4/7), 2-6] at the 2016 Australian Open. For it to not happen a third time, Nadal will need to make inroads and strike on his opponent’s serve. He did the inroads part in his last two defeats, generating 7 break points against Hubert Hurkacz and 1 against Jiri Lehecka. Unfortunately, his 0% conversion rate saw him make early exits in Madrid and Rome. 

Alexander Zverev is someone who has a big serve and lots of power, which he can use to get out of tight situations. Even if Nadal ups his game and keeps certain serves in play, it would be a weak return, allowing the server to fire a winner with the rally’s third shot. That said, the 27-year-old will enter this match having sent down 82 aces on clay this season. Should the German find some rhythm on serve, it could be problematic for his opponent.

Based on matches and form, it is Zverev’s to win. Rafael Nadal oozes willpower and grit; add a dash of sentiment to the mix and the desire will propel the 14-time French Open champion to keep finding another gear. Can he do it in a best-of-five set encounter? It seems unlikely.

The 2020 US Open final and this year’s Australian Open semifinal show that Alexander Zverev can take a lead and struggle to close it out. If the 27-year-old is in the ascendency, he will find it even tougher to close things out with the crowd backing the sentimental favorite. Hence, Monday may be the German’s greatest opening-round Grand Slam test.

Can Alexander Zverev just put his head down and eliminate every other distraction? He will be keen to do so and erase the memory of the 2022 semi-final exit. 

In a five-setter, he may experience a blip, but nothing short of Rafael Nadal rolling back the years and the German hitting a self-destruct button may result in a French Open win no. 113 for the Mallorcan. The 22-time Grand Slam champion will show flashes of his elite mentality, but not for a sustained period.

Alexander Zverev to beat Rafael Nadal in four sets