Grigor Dimitrov‘s relationship with clay is difficult to comprehend for tennis fans. He owned a negative win-loss record at the French Open until 2019. However, after battling through Zizou Bergs yesterday, the Bulgarian makes it to the round 4 for the second time, this decade. Now, eyeing his first quarter-final appearance, he must pass the Hubert Hurkacz test.

Hurkacz, meanwhile, belongs to a similar territory. Much like Grigor, he, too, matched his best Roland Garros record with a win over Denis Shapovalov. His recent adjustments to survive on slower surfaces are rewarding him every week now.

Grigor Dimitrov vs Hubert Hurkacz: French Open Round 4 Preview

Dimitrov entered the French Open with a mere 4-3 win-loss record on clay this year. He desperately needed to find some momentum after the memorable Miami final run, and Paris answered his call. Dropping only one set in the first three encounters of the campaign, the world number 10, is looking dangerous once again.

Hubi Hurkacz, on the other hand, has established himself as a multi-surface threat. He started his clay swing with a title in Estoril and also made the quarter-finals of the Italian Open. His victory over Rafael Nadal was the highlight of his season and he has been high on confidence ever since.

Grigor Dimitrov vs Hubert Hurkacz: Head-to-Head

Dimitrov enjoys one of the most lopsided head-to-head dominance over Hurkacz. He has won all five of his previous encounters against the Pole.

• Indian Wells 2021 QF (H): Dimitrov won 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(2)
• Monte Carlo 2022 QF (C): Dimitrov won 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(2)
• Rotterdam 2023 R16 (H): Dimitrov won 7-6(4), 7-6(5)
• Paris Bercy 2023 QF (H): Dimitrov won 6-1, 4-6, 6-4
• Miami 2024 R16 (H): Dimitrov won 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3)

Nonetheless, the 5-0 scoreline doesn’t paint the true picture. Hurkacz certainly doesn’t have a matchup issue against Grigor, however, he has failed to step up in the big moments against him, especially in tiebreakers.

Prediction:

Hurkacz has spent way more time on the court than Grigor this week. He failed to win a single match in straight sets and had to fight till the end for every victory. Conversely, the Bulgarian has been much more dominant in his victories so far, by dropping only one set all week.

Moreover, Hurkacz’s serving numbers saw a decline against Shapovalov. He went from registering 21 and 16 aces in his first two matches to 9 in the third. Dimitrov, at the same time, remained consistent with his 4-7 aces per match rate. Hurkacz’s serve is by far his biggest weapon and with its sudden midweek decline, Grigor’s chances shoot up.

Even on clay, this matchup is heavily serve-dominated with only a little room for error. Aside from serving, Grigor will be reliant on his slice and finesse while Hurkacz on his backhand and movement. Eventually, there won’t be much to separate the two pros.

Final Verdict: Dimitrov to win in four tight sets. The match is bound to feature tiebreakers and go over 40 games. Hurkacz, despite his declining serve, will touch double-digit numbers and register more aces than Grigor.