French Open 2024: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

Daniil Medvedev is all set for a ‘Demonic‘ challenge in the fourth round (R16) of the 2024 French Open. He will take on Australia’s Alex de Minaur at the Court Suzanne Lenglen in just a few hours from now. Both the players have been in good form this year. But if told to sum up Medvedev’s season so far in a single line, then it would be ‘So close, yet so far!‘ He has reached two finals, two SFs, and one QF this year but the Russian is yet to win a title in the 2024 season. Can he win his second major title in Paris this time around?

Well, to get even closer to the ultimate stage he needs to first defeat Alex de Minaur in his next match. De Minaur has already won a title this year and apart from that, he has made one final and one QF appearance this year. He recently became the first Australian to reach the men’s singles last 16 since 2007. Can he now become the first Australian man to reach the French Open QF since Lleyton Hewitt in 2004?

Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur: Preview

Medvedev earned a hard-fought victory in his third-round match against the Czech, Tomas Machac. He defeated Machac by 7-6(4),7-5,1-6,6-4 in 3 hours 24 minutes in his previous match. Daniil Medvedev hit 14 aces in that match and committed 9 double faults against the Czech tennis player. His first serve win percentage was 66% while it was just about 60% on the second serve. The 28-year-old Russian tennis star converted five of his ten breakpoints against 23-year-old Machac.

Diving deep into Medvedev’s numbers from this season, he has fired 171 aces and committed 130 double faults so far. Daniil Medvedev has won 79% of his service games and just 28% of his return games. The world number 5 will be now looking forward to improving his numbers in his next match against the number 11.

Alex de Minaur defeated Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff in his third-round match by 4-6,6-4,6-3,6-3. He hit five aces and three double faults in that match. De Minaur won 65% of her first serve and 54% of her second serve. He converted seven out of his ten breakpoints in that match against the German.

If we look at her numbers from this season, the 25-year-old Aussie tennis star hit 146 aces and committed 70 double faults so far. He has won 82% of his service games but the percentage dropped to 32% when it came to his win percentage in return games. Both players have met each other many times in their career and they know the strengths and weaknesses of their opponent’s game. But who has the edge in the H2H scoreline?

Medvedev vs De Minaur: Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev currently leads the H2H by a 6-2 margin. But out of these eight meetings, both the players haven’t yet played each other on any surfaces other than the hard courts. Will the surface be a major factor in deciding the winner of this epic contest? Time will tell! They had first met each other in 2018 in Sydney. In that final match, Daniil Medvedev defeated Alex de Minaur by 1-6,6-4,7-5. Their last meeting was in Beijing in 2023 and yet again the Russian secured a victory but this time in two sets, 7-6(3),6-3.

If we look at the numbers from their latest encounter, Daniil Medvedev hit three aces and committed eight double faults. On the other hand, Alex de Minaur hit five aces and committed just two double faults. The Aussie won 63% of his first serve and 48% of his second serve in that match. While the Russian won 74% of his first serve and 41% of his second serve. Medvedev converted just one of his three breakpoints in that match, De Minaur converted six of his nine breakpoint chances. Who’ll win this battle of these two in-form players in their next match in Paris?

Prediction: Medvedev to win in five sets

Daniil Medvedev’s best record in this tournament was reaching the QF in the 2021 French Open. He has vast experience of playing at the bigger stages of the game. Currently, his win-loss record for this season is 24-7. His opponent, Alex de Minaur has recorded 25-10 this season as of now. However, he hasn’t reached so far in this tournament ever before in his career. The ‘Demon’ will look forward to making it count this time around and try his luck of making a deeper run at the major event. Talking about luck, Alex de Minaur is seeking out the young fan who cheered for him throughout his recent match against Struff. Can the young fan yet again bring luck to the Aussie camp?

Getting a good start to the match will be very crucial to seal the deal in this thrilling contest. Alex de Minaur is known for his speed and agility on the court. His “never-say-die” attitude has earned him a huge fan base. De Minaur has the ability to retrieve seemingly impossible ballas and convert them into winners from there. He has a strong forehand, but the Australian needs to work a bit on his serve. Daniil Medvedev on the other hand, hits long, flat groundstrokes often wearing down his opponents with lengthy baseline rallies.

Will he take a similar approach in this match on the slow clay courts? We’ll have to wait a bit to get this answer, but looking at the experience of performing on the bigger stages, Medvedev looks slightly ahead of De Minaur at the moment.