“I just wish that this match was the finals, honestly.” Novak Djokovic’s words after his astounding four-set quarter-final win over Carlos Alcaraz can only mean one thing. The match took a lot out of him emotionally; there was a case to make about him being physically drained during set 2. But well, the ‘Serbinator’ seems to have regeneration powers like Deadpool and Wolverine. These, no doubt, kicked in during sets 3 and 4 and will be in full flow before he re-enters Rod Laver Arena to seek redemption in the battle between last year’s losing semifinalists. 

For Djokovic, memories of the semi-final defeat to Jannik Sinner will sting. For Alexander Zverev, sacrificing a 2-0 lead to Daniil Medvedev and being just 7 points away from a win in sets three and four will be painful. While the loss in the last four was a first for the Serb, Zverev has fallen here twice. Can the third time be the charm for the German? Or will the Serbian take his Australian Open semis tally to 11-1? It all depends on one thing. 

Mental fortitude. The German has shown this in flashes, but historically, it has not been enough against this opponent who has spades of it. 

It’s all about the crucial points. Here I’m speaking about the third set against Alcaraz, where Djokovic was on the verge of being broken back. Down 0-30, he reeled off four straight points. All when it really mattered! Even after the euphoria of a massive win over the Spaniard, expect Djokovic to put it all behind as he has done over the years. But here’s the thing, the Serb has a lot of miles on his body and Zverev has all the shots to trouble the former world no.1. Does he have the mindset, though? 

Grand Slams have proven to be the German’s biggest hurdle, with the 2020 and 2024 Australian Open semifinals coming to mind. In 2020, he lost two tiebreakers to Dominic Thiem on Rod Laver. Coincidentally, those were also sets 3 and 4. It’s almost as if the German struggles to close things out, which will be criminal when Novak Djokovic goes ‘Clutchovic’ in a bid to reach the actual finals of a Slam for the 38th time. 

Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev: Semifinal (Preview)

Rod Laver Arena saw glimpses of Djokovic going clutch, whilst he had “one and a half leg.” It can spell ominous signs, especially as nearly fourteen-and-a-half-hours on the court have seen him just get better. There was a first-set loss in the opening round to Nishesh Basavareddy, and a tie-break second-set defeat in round 2 to Jaime Faria. Apart from that? Yes, the Alcaraz opening set. But none of these three men could outplay Djokovic long enough for it to reflect on the scorecards. 

Alexander Zverev has spent just about two and a half hours less on the court, but he may not have even been here had a few points gone differently against Tommy Paul. In set 1, he was down a set point (6-5, 40-30) on return; in set 2, it was on Zverev’s serve where he was down set point (4-5, 30-40). Yes, the German went clutch himself, and his hard defeats served as massive stepping stones. But to do it against the best? That will be another task altogether, especially considering this statistic. 

Djokovic has allowed just 27 break opportunities across 18 sets and has been broken only 9 times.

The German has not been clinical in break-point conversions deeper in the tournament. It did get better against Tommy Paul, with 4/7 break points won. But there is that worrying figure of 6/16 against Ugo Humbert and 3/18 against Lucas Pouille.

Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic will definitely be studying tape and looking for something more to allow Djokovic to extend his head-to-head advantage.

Zverev’s path to victory reminds me of Eminem’s Lose Yourself. The World No. 2 will have one shot, one opportunity, to seize everything he ever wanted. One moment. To capture. Or just let it slip. 

Djokovic vs Zverev: Head-to-head 

Novak Djokovic leads 8-4, with the advantage getting even greater on hard courts, Grand Slam matches, and the Australian Open. However, only one of these matches has come after Zverev’s 25th birthday!

After their 5 meetings in 2021, they crossed paths only at the 2023 Cincinnati Open. Though it was a straight-set (6-7, 5-7) defeat for the German, he had chances that went past. Take, for instance, the three break points at 0-40 in the opening game on the Djokovic serve. In the second set, Zverev could not hold serve at 5-5 30-0 and lost 8 of the next 9 points. A silver lining for him is that he made the Serbian work hard in the opener, saving 5/6 set points. 

The Western and Southern Open’s last 4 match was one of the six times these two men have faced each other on outdoor hardcourts, with Novak Djokovic having a 5-1 advantage. Zverev’s sole win? It came at the Tokyo Olympics (best of 3). But one must look closer at two particular outdoor hardcourt Grand Slam matches, both of which took place in 2021, to see the German’s progress. 

• Australian Open Quarterfinal: Djokovic won 6-7 (6/8), 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 (8-6)

Though Zverev could not close out the opening set on his own serve, he did knuckle down to clinch the tiebreak. After going 1-2 down, he also earned a set point at 5-6, 40-A on the Djokovic serve. This came after he was 40-0 down, which shows that he does have what it takes to push the Serb. 

• US Open Semifinal: Djokovic won 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2

This one reads rather straightforward, but it saw a Grand Slam match between these two players go the distance for the first time.

Djokovic leads 3-0 at the Slams, but Zverev has made slow progress after going down in three in their first Major clash (2019 French Open). Is it finally time he wins 3 sets on the day?

Prediction: Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev 

Up against the game’s best returner, the 27-year-old’s formidable serve will be tested in a big way. The slower courts Down Under may nullify Zverev’s power, but he can still use his powerful groundstrokes to construct points and set up for a winner. Wait? Getting Djokovic, a man who can slide and counter-punch, out of position? Maybe for a few points here and there. But to do so over three (or possibly five sets)? A tough ask. But, it has to be Zverev’s game plan as even Djokovic is not immune to the one thing that has claimed the other 3, i.e. time. 

The 37-year-old is a step slower and the German’s game of both wings can keep him honest. Zverev, though, must only remember to not make the same mistake as Carlos Alcaraz, i.e. be hesitant. Any short or tentative returns will see Djokovic capitalize, as he, too, will know this and work on a plan as he has always done. And when this is in motion, all anyone can do is just sit and smile in disbelief. Alcaraz did just that 2 days back. 

We believe the Alcaraz win may have taken a bit out of Djokovic, and a fresher Zverev has what it takes to reach his third Grand Slam final. There will be no freebies though, with him having to display mental fortitude and earn it. 

Every. Single. Point. 

Though the veteran has miles on his body, his grit and tennis smarts are still ever present. Zverev doesn’t need to do much, just put every won or lost point behind him until the umpire says “Game, set, and match…”

Can he? His game, his stats, his age; everything is in his favor. Will he join the lost gen? More losses at the biggest stages for the 27-year-old, who will be 28 before the next major, can certainly signal that. It’s all about clutch and we think the German will face adversity, use his experience to fight it, and overcome it to advance. 

Prediction: Alexander Zverev to win in 5.