The beginning of the season didn’t look great for Andrey Rublev, as he was stunned by 18-year-old Brazilian Joao Fonseca in the first round of the Australian Open. However, in the ongoing Open Occitanie Montpellier, the Russian has already secured a spot in the final eight. On the other hand, a determined Nikoloz Basilashvili has raised his game as well, looking to make a return to the top 100. As the two stars face off, who is more likely to make his way to the semis?

Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili: Preview

Andrey Rublev, who is ranked No. 10 in the world, got to the quarterfinals at Montpellier with a strong performance. He received a bye in the first round before beating Christopher Eubanks in straight sets by 6-4, 6-3. His aggressive approach helped him secure 25 winners, keeping his opponent under pressure from start to finish. Rublev’s serve gave him a major advantage. He fired 4 aces and did not commit a single double fault, which made a big difference.

Rublev’s first serve was nearly untouchable, as he won 89% of the points on it. Even on his second serve, the 27-year-old remained steady and secured 60% of the points. This control on serve ensured he never faced a break point. On the return, he was just as sharp, breaking Eubanks 3 times while converting 50% of his break-point opportunities.

So far in 2025, Rublev has played only one match on indoor hard courts and has won it. His overall record on this surface remains impressive at 113-63, proving his comfort in such conditions.

Meanwhile, Nikoloz Basilashvili, who is ranked No. 178, had a much tougher road to the quarterfinals. He battled through the qualifiers and the main draw, defeating Matteo Gigante, Titouan Droguet, Mikhail Kukushkin, and Arthur Rinderknech. His most recent match against Rinderknech was another impressive performance, where he secured a 6-0, 7-6(4) victory. The Georgian displayed an aggressive style, winning 79 points compared to Rinderknech’s 59. He also unleashed 29 winners, constantly putting his opponent on the back foot.

Basilashvili’s serve played a crucial role in his success. He struck 7 aces and kept his errors low, committing just 1 double fault. Despite dropping his serve once, he showed resilience by saving 3 break points. His first serve worked well, as he landed 64% of them and won 69% of those points. Even on his second serve, he managed to win 58% of the points. His ability to capitalize on break points also proved decisive, as he broke Rinderknech 4 times while converting 50% of his opportunities. His recent form suggests that he might soon challenge for a spot in the Top 100 again.

Reaching the ATP Montpellier quarterfinals is already a big milestone for Basilashvili, especially since it has been two years since he last won a match at this level. Despite his progress, Rublev is expected to have the upper hand in their upcoming battle. Basilashvili also appeared to have an injury issue in his previous match, which could further tilt the contest in Rublev’s favor.

Rublev vs Basilashvili: Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev and Nikoloz Basilashvili are set to face off for the seventh time in their careers. Their head-to-head record stands at an even 3-3, making this contest a crucial decider in their rivalry.

Their rivalry began in 2019 at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open in Doha, where Basilashvili claimed a 6-3, 6-4 victory. Their most recent meeting took place at the 2022 Noventi Open in Halle, where the Georgian once again emerged victorious, winning 7-6, 6-4.

Prediction: Andrey Rublev to win the match and advance to the next round

Andrey Rublev enters this match as the favorite due to his superior ranking, strong baseline game, and ability to dictate rallies with his powerful forehand. His experience at the top level gives him a significant edge, but his inconsistency has been a recurring issue, especially against players who can absorb and redirect his pace.

While he has a solid record on indoor hard courts, Basilashvili’s performances on this surface have been less dominant compared to outdoor conditions. He will need to ensure that his game remains steady and he avoids extended rallies where unforced errors could creep in.

Nikoloz Basilashvili has built strong momentum in this tournament, winning five matches to reach the quarterfinals. His aggressive shot-making and heavy-hitting baseline game make him a dangerous opponent when he finds his rhythm. However, inconsistency remains his biggest weakness, often leading to unforced errors at crucial moments.

While his indoor hard-court record is respectable, his performances have been unpredictable in recent years. Additionally, he appeared to have an injury concern in his last match, which could impact his ability to compete at full intensity.

The indoor hard courts in Montpellier suit both players’ styles, setting the stage for a high-energy battle. Rublev will aim to control the match with his baseline aggression, while Basilashvili will look to capitalize on his power and take the initiative in rallies. The key factor will be who can execute their attacking game more effectively while keeping errors in check.

Considering their head-to-head record, which is tied at 3-3, this match could be highly competitive. However, Rublev’s higher ranking, superior consistency, and overall firepower make him the likely winner. Basilashvili has the tools to push him, but given his unpredictable form and potential injury issue, it will be difficult for him to sustain a high level throughout the match.

If Rublev stays focused and avoids unnecessary mistakes, he should be able to secure the win. Expect a fast-paced, aggressive encounter, with Rublev ultimately prevailing.