Losing a crucial match representing one’s nation is always a bitter pill to swallow. However, if you ask me what the one thing that separates the champion from the rest is, then it’s surely going to be the hunger to make a stronger comeback. After losing out to Novak Djokovic in the gold medal match at the Paris Olympics, Carlos Alcaraz broke down in tears. He was very disappointed in missing out on the chance of winning the gold medal for Spain. However, that is more of a past thing now, and next up for the four-time Grand Slam winner is the Cincinnati Open. The draw of this tournament took place on Saturday. Who are his probable opponents in Cincy?

The 2022 US Open champion would love to get some wins under his belt before flying to New York on the 144th edition. Alcaraz hasn’t competed on the hard courts since March. However, this isn’t an unfamiliar territory for the Spaniard. He reached the finals here in 2023 and will be keen to make yet another long run this season. Talking about runs, well Alcaraz received a bye into the second round and is all set to face either Gael Monfils or Alexei Popyrin in the R32. Making a transition to hard courts after playing at long clay and grass court swings will be tough, but we all know Carlitos loves a good challenge.

If he manages to go through to the R16, he may face either Holger Rune or Matteo Berrettini. Alcaraz has a H2H record of 2-1 against the Danish. That’s quite close, isn’t it? However, against the Italian, it’s much better (3-1 in favor of the Spaniard). Irrespective of who he faces in this round, Alcaraz is clearly the favorite to win this round. Then in the QF, his opponents could be either Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Félix Auger-Aliassime, or Jack Draper.

Alcaraz versus Tsitsipas would be a good matchup but Alcaraz versus Daniil Medvedev is more exciting. Guess what, if Alcaraz goes through to the semis in Cincinnati, there is a strong chance of him facing either Medvedev or Tommy Paul. He has a clear-cut 5-2 lead over both of them in the H2H. Winning the semifinal match would surely be challenging for even the in-form Alcaraz. However, if he successfully manages to win this match, then either Jannik Sinner or Alexander Zverev may be called to action to stop the Spanish superstar. Alcaraz currently sits in third place in the men’s singles ranking with 8130 official points. Does he have any chance of taking a leap over Djokovic?

Carlos Alcaraz has a great opportunity ahead of him

Although Jannik Sinner is currently sitting at the top of the table in the ATP Rankings, Carlitos has managed to secure the top spot in the UTR Rankings with his stellar form. Djokovic previously also endorsed this ranking and this standing may well provide Alcaraz a fair bit of confidence before taking on these two in the rest of the tournaments this year. However, Djokovic (2) has already withdrawn his name from the Cincinnati Open and this will indeed give Alcaraz a chance to grab a few points and challenge the Serb on the ATP Rankings. 

Last year’s winner Djokovic will drop all 1000 points that he earned in 2023 from this tournament. Hence, his points will go down from 8460 to 7460. Alcaraz will also lose some points (180) after his withdrawal from the Canadian Open. He reached the QF over there last time and it means he’ll enter the Cincinnati event with 7950 points. The Spaniard will defend 600 points because he finished as the runners-up last year.

If he somehow manages to even reach the QF, Alcaraz will earn 200 points and it means at the end of this tournament his points will reach a total of 7550 (i.e. 90 points more than Djokovic). Entering the US Open draw as the number 2 instead of the number 3 seed may well give him an added advantage of not facing the top seed until the final.